Food for Thought on the NBA's 'Tanking' Debate

Embarking on a season where a handful of teams look hopelessly destined (and content to be so) for the lottery, with zero postseason aspirations, there has been some noteworthy, timely discussion on the subject of 'tanking', being satisfied with losing games, and the now-commonplace method of building through the draft. ESPN's Chad Ford (via ESPN Insider) recently assessed the extent to which he believes teams qualify for the tanking label, throwing the Phoenix Suns and the Philadelphia 76ers atop his "rankings". Ford asserted that the NBA is littered with franchises who "want to lose a lot", based on the knowledge that "NBA GMs are calling the next draft the best in a decade". The chief lottery prizes are anticipated to be Canadian Andrew Wiggins and fellow freshman Kentucky's Julius Randle. League executives may value the talent of this upcoming draft at historic, near unprecedented levels, but with the team who holds the honour of the NBA's worst regular season record only assured of a 25% chance of the #1 overall pick, and so much more (player development, team culture, health, roster balance, coaching etc.) at stake in the game of drafting franchise-altering talent, is the tanking strategy truly worthwhile?

Forward-thinking, forthright Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban expressed his opinion on the matter of team-building, and just how the Mavs have approached the issue under his guidance. Cuban addressed the idea of allowing your team to "lose a lot of games so you have a chance to pick the next Kevin Durant, John Wall or Kyrie Irving or Blake Griffin et al", while reminding his audience that the formula cannot be that simple - there remains the inherent need for the players to develop, and for them to be appropriately surrounded by a supporting cast capable of contending for a championship. Interestingly, the Mavericks' owner also raised the prospect of many teams following a model, or a set strategy, and that, on the flip side, "it creates opportunities for those who have followed a different path". Cuban's views are, as usual, candid and worth considering, and raise further questions about the finality, certainty, or lack thereof, within the NBA's contemporary managerial manifesto.

A recent example of executive decision-making that remains relevant to this discussion is the Orlando Magic's decision to trade Dwight Howard prior to his contract expiring, and the talent level that the franchise received in return. Orlando flatly rejected the chance at receiving either of former All-Stars Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bynum, raising suspicions that Magic GM Rob Hennigan intentionally received an underwhelming (short-term) offer with the hope of improving the team's draft position. In the wake of the transaction, the Magic were widely projected to be the 'losers' of the trade, headed for a certain regression in the win column. A collection of All-Stars switched jerseys and Orlando held the desired commodity and centrepiece of the discussions, yet the organisation's returns consisted primarily of inexperienced young players, rookie, and future assets. All three major pieces of the deal (not arriving in Orlando) - Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, and Andre Iguodala - have since departed their trade destinations, significantly altering any forecasts associated to the original agreement. Orlando finished 2012-13 with a league-worst record of 20-62, subsequently earning the 2nd overall selection in the draft and taking Indiana guard Victor Oladipo with the pick.

Dave Berri of Freakanomics.com analysed the historical outcomes of repeated losing seasons and high draft placements, setting the bar for basketball ineptitude at 25 wins or fewer. Berri reviewed the win totals of those teams in the years after their subpar seasons, revealing that "nearly 90 percent of teams that win 25 games or fewer are not contenders five years later". The piece discusses the trend of teams attempting to avoid the "mediocrity treadmill", while debunking myths that the NBA's draft lottery is starting place on the championship map, and concluding that "losing is not a winning strategy in the NBA". Berri's discussion also raised the prospect of teams lodged in the window of 34 to 49 wins in any given season (labelled "mediocre" for the purposes of his piece) are better placed than those who are wholeheartedly embracing the race to the bottom.

Another, different perspective on the subject emerged courtesy of Charlotte Bobcats owner Michael Jordan, who also refuted the idea of tanking, and insisted that his franchise would not be taking that route. Jordan clarified his thoughts on the tanking model, declaring, "If that was my intention I never would have paid Al Jefferson $13 million a year." The Bobcats, lost in the abyss of NBA irrelevance and holders of a 62-168 win-loss ratio in Jordan's three seasons as owner, are desperate to shed the label of being perennially incompetent, and would seemingly welcome a season in the range of 34 to 49 wins, to use Berri's scale.

With so much speculation and anticipation hovering over the 2014 NBA Draft and the potential prospects, this season is bound to prove an exhibition in team management, and team building strategy.

What's new on the uniform front for 2013-14

The Pelicans' road gear

Here are thoughts on some of the new NBA uniforms that’ll be worn in 2013-14.

New Orleans Pelicans, home and away

The colour scheme is uninspiring. It's conservative but looks like it’ll age quickly.

The font used for the lettering is likeable, but that’s almost irrelevant given the lettering is too small. It seems odd that ‘Pelicans’ wasn’t used for either the home or road jersey script. Not only is that a new nickname, but it uses less space than ‘New Orleans’ and thus would’ve been a nicer fit for the jersey.

The side panels, clean armholes and V-neck all hinder this set.

The logo – which is so busy it takes a second to spot the pelican – marks a missed opportunity. The Pelicans nickname provided New Orleans a chance to use a happy, cartoon bird logo, like the Baltimore Orioles. That would’ve been a nice change for an NBA team.

Phoenix Suns, home, away and alternate

The use of black really hurts this set. The home uniform is the biggest offender on this front with a black collar and black numbers, when purple would’ve been a more eye-pleasing choice.

The coloured flaps on the neckline and the piping near the armholes and across the back of the shorts are clutter. That design on the hem of the shorts belongs on a misguided teen’s lower back, not this uniform.

The script, numbering and font for the player names are all attractive. There’s something flimsy-looking about that streaks design, but it works.

Some sort of diagonal pattern on the shorts – similar to what they did in the ‘90s – would’ve been a nice touch.

Detroit Pistons, alternate

This looks like something a Saturday junior club with a big uniform budget would wear. It’s unnecessary and generically modern, particularly those side panels.



The new alternate for the Warriors

Golden State Warriors, alternate

Having a sleeved jersey seems particularly unnecessary when you leave the sleeves plain. Some stripes – and the Warriors already have stripes elsewhere on their unis – would’ve looked good on there.

Los Angeles Clippers, alternate

The light blue is attractive and relevant to the club’s past. This uniform could do with a more standard collar and without the piping up the side, however.

Los Angeles Lakers, alternate

They took an unattractive uniform and made it worse with black. That shade doesn’t team well with purple and gold, plus this gear retains the unsightly side panels of the other Lakers unis.

Miami Heat, two alternates

Both are unnecessary. The red one looks terrible, the black one looks good. The scoop collar, trim, and drop shadow on the numbers are all plusses for the black uniform. Hopefully the ‘A’ isn’t actually solid, as it appears in that photo.

New York Knicks, alternate

Its biggest crime is being unneeded, particularly as the Knicks have one of the finest uniform sets in the league without it. This alternate has all the features that make their regulars so appealing, though.

UPDATE: Ernie Grunfeld & the Washington Professional Basketball Team Liked My Suggestion

Ernie Grunfeld, Washington Wizards General Manager and orchestrator of the awful, awful trade that sent 2009 #5 draft pick (later Ricky Rubio) to Minnesota in exchange for Randy Foye and Mike Miller, took notice of Prophecies from the Parquet's idea and acted quickly. Grunfeld, sensing the pressure and need for a playoff push, moved to bring Phoenix Suns centre Marcin Gortat to D.C., in exchange for Emeka Okafor and his expiring contract. Typically, this may pass as a relatively run-of-the-mill NBA transaction where one general manager feeling the heat attempted to move the needle toward a 6th, 7th, or 8th spot in the playoffs. Not so fast. Introducing one of our scheduled, regular features earlier today (Death by Trade Machine), PFP posted at 11:22 Pacific Standard Time that it would be prudent for Washington to move the Okafor contract, and to look no further than Phoenix for a potential trading partner. The purpose of this feature, as mentioned in the breakdown, is not to stand as a foreshadower of future moves or to capitalise on a raft of rumoured deals, but rather to attempt to use logic and come up with reasonable solutions for unbalanced, misdirected, and/or mediocre teams - with the help of the ESPN Trade Machine.

The fact that this took place within hours of the post/suggestion (with SBNation's Drew Garrison posting about the trade at 5:45 EST) is a gigantic coincidence and highly comical, yet it highlights the future value and potential for our staple of player movement ideas and prognostications.

The mechanics of the deal are far from identical, most notably Dragic is not included, with the Suns sending out Gortat, veteran guard Shannon Brown, Malcolm Lee, and second-year guard Kendall Marshall, and receiving Okafor in return. The teams also exchanged future first-round draft picks, of note for a Phoenix team with a view toward what is considered to be a loaded 2014 Draft.

Ultimately, the man in charge of the Wizards - Ernie Grunfeld - will be judged by Washington's ability to reach the postseason, and whether or not the current construct of the team is such that they are positioned for further advancements up the standings.

Keep a close eye on Death by Trade Machine.

'Death by Trade Machine' is a regular feature running on this blog, where PFP contributors teleport themselves into the minds of NBA front offices (through the wonders of the ESPN NBA Trade Machine), and attempt to conjure solutions to the nagging issues of NBA teams. Trade ideas may be centred on team balance, salary cap questions, rumoured player dissatisfaction, or any combination of these factors. NOTE: These posts in no way are intended to serve as forecasts or predictions for future transactions, but rather as a laid back way of indulging in the insanity of NBA player movement. 

Death by Trade Machine #1 - Washington Would Like to Make the Playoffs

Cap mechanics of PFP's proposed trade.

Mired in mediocrity for a number of years, the Washington Wizards have not featured in the NBA playoffs since signing Gilbert Arenas to his infamous $111M contract extension in July, 2008. Former #1 overall draft pick and franchise point guard, John Wall, (with a new contract of his own to boast) would like to change that. Wall does not need any reminding of the status of his Wizards, though, with recent reports suggesting that he intends to label each pair of game shoes throughout the upcoming season with the word 'playoffs'. Amidst a flurry of offseason signings and retooling, Washington appear to have been grouped in at the lower end of the Eastern Conference (along with the new-look rosters of Cleveland and Detroit) as a team considered likely to make a playoff push. This level of newfound optimism is not unique to media circles, either.

Following a strong finish to this past season, the Wizards elected to solidify their roster by retaining three-point specialist Martell Webster and investing the 3rd overall pick in the draft in Georgetown product, Otto Porter Jr. Persistently for Washington, however, health has been a lingering concern, one that has swiftly diminished the brightness of their outlook in seasons past. Despite fans finding solace in an unfamiliar level of stability and direction in recent franchise manoeuvres, a cloud of injury and uncertainty still lurks, with key piece Emeka Okafor sidelined indefinitely with a herniated disk in his neck. This sombre news only compounds the reality that starting centre Nene has struggled to stay on the court, appearing in just 72 games for the team over an 18 month span.

With this in mind, Washington seems a perfect starting place for the introduction of the 'Death by Trade Machine' column, as Prophecies from the Parquet looks for suitable trading partners and the right balance to put these dwindling Wizards back into the May basketball schedule, and restore the team to its former glory. And where better to start the search than one of the teams immersed in season-long indifference, with little desire to win now. I speak of none other than the Phoenix Suns, a team presently stuck in the unwanted quagmire of being an unequivocally bad team, but not quite bad enough. The Suns spent their summer amassing assets for the future, and simultaneously throwing in the proverbial towel for the upcoming season. The team is left with the problem, nonetheless, that the roster still contains a number of legitimate, rotation NBA players - among them are starters Goran Dragic and Marcin Gortat. This Phoenix duo, one of whom has not been shy of publicising his feelings about the organisation and its state of affairs, seem a near perfect fit for an exchange with the injured Emeka Okafor's expiring contract.

A simple swap such as this, perhaps with an added sweetener - such as one of Washington's handful of underdeveloped young forwards - would accelerate the aims for both parties. Placing Gortat in the Wizards' frame would form (health permitting) an intimidating frontline with Nene, while Dragic is a proven player capable of logging heavy minutes at either guard spot. Dragic could conceivably complement the current setup of the Wizards' backcourt, offering a preferable alternative to their present backups, whilst arriving at an affordable, manageable price. For Phoenix, removing two of the primary holdovers from a previous regime, and two competent players at that, would likely result in a shift further down the standings, but not one that the franchise appears altogether opposed to. The cap cost is not too great for a Washington organisation quite clearly grouped into 'win now' mode, with Gortat's deal due to expire at season's end, and Dragic (theoretically) arriving at the aforementioned respectable rate. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how these two situations develop, respectively, as we can expect both to resurface in the Death by Trade Machine clouds across the year.

‘Death by Trade Machine’ is a regular feature running on this blog, where PFP contributors teleport themselves into the minds of NBA front offices (through the wonders of the ESPN NBA Trade Machine), and attempt to conjure solutions to the nagging issues of NBA teams. Trade ideas may be centred on team balance, salary cap questions, rumoured player dissatisfaction, or any combination of these factors. NOTE: These posts in no way are intended to serve as forecasts or predictions for future transactions, but rather as a laid back way of indulging in the insanity of NBA player movement.