Memoirs of a Sloan: Reflecting on My Improbable Journey to SSAC 2014

This past weekend, I traveled to Boston for the 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. The conference was held over two days -- Friday & Saturday -- and the following is an assortment of anecdotes, ideas, and tidbits from my first time attending the event.

Seventeen thousand kilometres. That's an approximate measurement of the distance between my city of origin (Melbourne, Australia) and downtown Boston, Massachusetts. Thankfully, for the time being at least, I didn't directly make that arduous trek. Flying in from Toronto makes the task all the more achievable, and realistic -- even with yours truly's border-hopping, foreign, alien identity. Nevertheless, the realities of the fundamental, start-to-finish voyage that transpired factors heavily into why my very appearance at the conference was an altogether unexpected and unlikely one.

The Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (SSAC) has ballooned in both stature and recognition since its 2007 inception, so much so that murmurings prior to the event were flooded with scepticism as to its present-day purpose and worth. Paul Flannery delivered an interesting commentary on the growth and manoeuvring of the conference for Boston Magazine, only a few days ahead of the commencement of the 2014 incarnation. Flannery, intriguingly for those with little Sloan experience, noted that the techniques and flow of information may have been altered ever so slightly:

To find any real insights, you have to sift through the handful of academic papers that are presented each year outside of the main hall—either that, or buttonhole a few stat-heads and try to pry out their secrets over a few drinks. All of which makes you wonder: Has Sloan outlived its usefulness? Has it grown too large to fulfill its initial mission as an academic conference?

The underlying "it was only legitimate when it was underground," sentiment is enough to give pause to any potential attendee. I guess the more important question becomes: if you are attending, what is the primary purpose of being there? Sloan is a fairly idiosyncratic paradigm; a meeting of the minds, a chance for individuals to pitch their value and their ideas, and an odd setting where familiar faces and relative celebrities casually adorn the hallways. The overwhelming concern is, has the freshly corporatised environment and proprietary nature of the information lessened the intellectual currency of the conference?

In this case, the beauty (of the accessible knowledge) is undoubtedly in the eye of the beholder. As enlightening as it may be to absorb the dulcet tones of Phil Jackson for forty-five minutes on stage, or serve as a sounding board for Stan Van Gundy's stereotypically raw, profane outlook on advanced metrics, it can be even more productive to liaise with the "lower-profile" types lingering in the analytics-driven atmosphere. There's a jovial, jocular undercurrent at the joint where many a "nerdgasm" takes place. Whether jawing over the decision to include a linear kernel in a research method, searching for positional distinctions beneath the "Hot Hand" theory, or simply relishing in the magnificence of the abundant oatmeal-raisin cookies on offer, SSAC (still) presents ample opportunity for engaging conversation.

An important takeaway from Sloan, and for any such gathering of likeminded folk, is that often the people you unexpectedly encounter and get to know are just as illuminating and diverse as those who you had previously hoped to meet, and those who may be featured and/or posted as "attractions." For example, I stumbled across a middle-aged man -- who had traveled from San Diego -- who for one reason or another caught my attention, and I found myself captivated by the dialogue. Here I was actively seeking a discussion, at length, on a subject matter (the appropriate number of innings for the average pitcher in an MLB season) that was far beyond the realm of my own individual interest, albeit with a complete stranger. These forms of informal, organic interactions function as the added bit of unpredictability, and the cherry-on-the-icing-on-the-sundae of the experience as an entity.

Personally, little could deter me from immersing myself in the company of the lively basketball writing community. The palpable presence of the TrueHoop Network hovered over the clustered media room at the end of the convention centre's expansive foyer. So many characters, and such scarce time. There's a fervent sense of fraternity amongst those in the THN, even despite the predisposed condition that the Network in and of itself is a collection of bloggers and thinkers of varying experiences, ages, and identities. This heterogeneity of thought and personality was not exclusive to the TrueHoop clan, either. Whether it be Jim Cavan and Robert Silverman of Knickerblogger, Tom Sunnergren of Hoop76, Ian Levy and Andrew Lynch of Hardwood Paroxysm, Taylor Armosino of The Knicks Wall, Chris Herring of the Wall Street Journal, Neurolinguistic Programming Trainer and Peak Performance Coach Art Rondeau, or any number of the other informative, accommodating writers in attendance, Sloan conjured a setting for all and sundry to rendezvous and float ideas and opinions.

The caveat of serenely nattering away with assorted media members was a refreshing juxtaposition for the more prototypical practice of witnessing Sloan's panel deliberations. The utter eccentricity of author Malcolm Gladwell acted as a highlight of the innovation and intellectual conversation that is regularly threaded throughout Sloan's stages. Gladwell appeared opposite fellow author David Epstein in the "10,000 hours vs. The Sports Gene" forum, and later steered a one-on-one interview with NBA commissioner Adam Silver. His trademark quirkiness and vehement, hound-like interviewing technique fostered an environment rich with entertainment, to be sure. Gladwell's re-introduction of the 10,000 hours theory within his book, Outliers, stood as relatively groundbreaking material, and prima facie. This was a fitting foundation for the lighthearted exchange that he and Epstein eventually enjoyed.

There is so much to be extracted from the well that Sloan is, so it's difficult to summarise it all in a concise fashion. Here are a handful of bits and pieces that stuck in my mind even days after returning from Boston. As unlikely as my trip to the conference may have been, it'll be interesting to see if I'm writing a similar recap of the events in twelve months' time.

Panels

• Predictably, Zach Lowe moderating the Basketball Analytics panel and directing traffic on matters such as PEDs, tanking, SportVU player tracking data, injuries, minutes restrictions, the draft lottery, and parity within the league, delivered on its promise. Not to be lost among the shrubbery of the stage littered with current and former league executives such as Steve Kerr and Mike Zarren was the sheer candidness of Stan Van Gundy, and Bryan Colangelo. While Van Gundy panned the perceived philosophy of the Philadelphia 76ers' front office by labelling their operations as "disgraceful," -- with the team's General Manager Sam Hinkie in the audience, mind you -- Colangelo submitted a startling concession of his fading years as an executive in Toronto. 

Bryan Colangelo: "Admittedly I tried to tank a couple of years ago." #SSAC14
— Gus Crawford (@gus_crawford) February 28, 2014

• The "In-Game Innovations" panel attributed the conference with the surprise wrinkle that esteemed baseball writer and statistician Bill James would be in attendance. ESPN's Kevin Arnovitz expertly massaged the crew that included former NBA head coach George Karl, Pulaski Academy football coach Kevin Kelley, Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey, and the aforementioned James. Of note within this dialogue were the ideas of unpredictability and pace of play, with Karl asserting that his preference for a helter-skelter offense had never really waned -- despite the perception that it has failed in the postseason. Save for his bitter disposition toward the public's interpretation of him as a coach, Karl discussed managing lineups and having unconventional rotations and, in doing so, referred to how he was left to handle a competitive point guard dual with Denver in 2011. Perhaps the other most interesting anecdote from this early-morning discourse was Morey's assertion that -- under Jeff Van Gundy -- the Rockets' studies showed that they often found success scoring the ball in broken plays.

George Karl, on Raymond Felton in Denver (2011), "1 week after he got to our team we knew he wouldn't be around next season." #SSAC14
— Gus Crawford (@gus_crawford) February 28, 2014 

• In a not-entirely-bewildering turn of events, the "Building a Dynasty" discussion felt more like a sponsored nostalgia session than anything else. Not that the panel was absent of insight, but the laudatory way in which both Jonathan Kraft and Phil Jackson are (rightfully so) perennially treated slightly masked the substance and depth of conversation. Notwithstanding this, Phil Jackson's not-so-subtle jab at his former employer (the Los Angeles Lakers) in response to a Jackie Macmullan question (on which present-day player may be best suited for his patented triangle offense) was characteristically zany: "How about [Dwight] Howard?"

People

• Following along with the theme of the rest of the weekend, the unforeseen aspects were almost universally the most enjoyable. Add having 76ers General Manager Sam Hinkie tardily slink into a presentation room, take a seat next to yours truly, and welcome some friendly banter between one another to that very list. This (intermittent) conversation was not expected, and yet it proved to be a treasured takeaway from the whirlwind weekend. 
• I have long-admired the work of the aforementioned Ian Levy, creator of Hickory High. As such, the opportunity to meet and greet with Ian in person was one that could not be missed. I'm not quite sure how he juggles everything at his feet in the way that he does, suffice to say that it impresses me. Ian's writing and contributions are innovative, well-researched, and often transcendent, while Hickory High as a whole carries a near-unmatched degree of respect within basketball circles. If you were not previously a reader of Ian's site, I cannot recommend it highly enough.

Papers

• In an activity that left me questioning my own elementary level of intellect (see: "Automatically Recognizing On-Ball Screens"), listening to a scattered mixture of the conference's research paper presentations -- yet again -- handed a point of difference. The work of Rajiv Maheswaran and Second Spectrum, Inc., however, left me simultaneously blown away and fascinated. The segregation of the practice of rebounding within the "Three Dimensions of Rebounding" paper (into positioning, hustle, and conversion) created a framework from which ample knowledge could be extrapolated -- even for a layperson. The success of this paper and the regard with which it was held in by those at the conference is not altogether alarming. 

  

  Information courtesy of Rajiv Maheswaran, Yu-Han Chang, Jeff Su, Sheldon Kwok, Tal Levy, Adam Wexler, Noel Hollingsworth, and Second Spectrum Inc.

  
  

  
  

Food for Thought on the NBA's 'Tanking' Debate

Embarking on a season where a handful of teams look hopelessly destined (and content to be so) for the lottery, with zero postseason aspirations, there has been some noteworthy, timely discussion on the subject of 'tanking', being satisfied with losing games, and the now-commonplace method of building through the draft. ESPN's Chad Ford (via ESPN Insider) recently assessed the extent to which he believes teams qualify for the tanking label, throwing the Phoenix Suns and the Philadelphia 76ers atop his "rankings". Ford asserted that the NBA is littered with franchises who "want to lose a lot", based on the knowledge that "NBA GMs are calling the next draft the best in a decade". The chief lottery prizes are anticipated to be Canadian Andrew Wiggins and fellow freshman Kentucky's Julius Randle. League executives may value the talent of this upcoming draft at historic, near unprecedented levels, but with the team who holds the honour of the NBA's worst regular season record only assured of a 25% chance of the #1 overall pick, and so much more (player development, team culture, health, roster balance, coaching etc.) at stake in the game of drafting franchise-altering talent, is the tanking strategy truly worthwhile?

Forward-thinking, forthright Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban expressed his opinion on the matter of team-building, and just how the Mavs have approached the issue under his guidance. Cuban addressed the idea of allowing your team to "lose a lot of games so you have a chance to pick the next Kevin Durant, John Wall or Kyrie Irving or Blake Griffin et al", while reminding his audience that the formula cannot be that simple - there remains the inherent need for the players to develop, and for them to be appropriately surrounded by a supporting cast capable of contending for a championship. Interestingly, the Mavericks' owner also raised the prospect of many teams following a model, or a set strategy, and that, on the flip side, "it creates opportunities for those who have followed a different path". Cuban's views are, as usual, candid and worth considering, and raise further questions about the finality, certainty, or lack thereof, within the NBA's contemporary managerial manifesto.

A recent example of executive decision-making that remains relevant to this discussion is the Orlando Magic's decision to trade Dwight Howard prior to his contract expiring, and the talent level that the franchise received in return. Orlando flatly rejected the chance at receiving either of former All-Stars Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bynum, raising suspicions that Magic GM Rob Hennigan intentionally received an underwhelming (short-term) offer with the hope of improving the team's draft position. In the wake of the transaction, the Magic were widely projected to be the 'losers' of the trade, headed for a certain regression in the win column. A collection of All-Stars switched jerseys and Orlando held the desired commodity and centrepiece of the discussions, yet the organisation's returns consisted primarily of inexperienced young players, rookie, and future assets. All three major pieces of the deal (not arriving in Orlando) - Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, and Andre Iguodala - have since departed their trade destinations, significantly altering any forecasts associated to the original agreement. Orlando finished 2012-13 with a league-worst record of 20-62, subsequently earning the 2nd overall selection in the draft and taking Indiana guard Victor Oladipo with the pick.

Dave Berri of Freakanomics.com analysed the historical outcomes of repeated losing seasons and high draft placements, setting the bar for basketball ineptitude at 25 wins or fewer. Berri reviewed the win totals of those teams in the years after their subpar seasons, revealing that "nearly 90 percent of teams that win 25 games or fewer are not contenders five years later". The piece discusses the trend of teams attempting to avoid the "mediocrity treadmill", while debunking myths that the NBA's draft lottery is starting place on the championship map, and concluding that "losing is not a winning strategy in the NBA". Berri's discussion also raised the prospect of teams lodged in the window of 34 to 49 wins in any given season (labelled "mediocre" for the purposes of his piece) are better placed than those who are wholeheartedly embracing the race to the bottom.

Another, different perspective on the subject emerged courtesy of Charlotte Bobcats owner Michael Jordan, who also refuted the idea of tanking, and insisted that his franchise would not be taking that route. Jordan clarified his thoughts on the tanking model, declaring, "If that was my intention I never would have paid Al Jefferson $13 million a year." The Bobcats, lost in the abyss of NBA irrelevance and holders of a 62-168 win-loss ratio in Jordan's three seasons as owner, are desperate to shed the label of being perennially incompetent, and would seemingly welcome a season in the range of 34 to 49 wins, to use Berri's scale.

With so much speculation and anticipation hovering over the 2014 NBA Draft and the potential prospects, this season is bound to prove an exhibition in team management, and team building strategy.

'You have six NBA players' - All is Not Well in the City of Brotherly Love

Sixers head coach Brett Brown pondering a season of headaches.

Prior to the team's recent preseason loss at the hands of Cleveland in Columbus, Ohio, incoming head coach Brett Brown offered an honest, foreboding assessment of the status of 76ers basketball, confessing that Philadelphia are blessed with the fortunes of just six legitimate, capable, NBA-calibre players. This explicit denigration of the quality of the roster emerged from a series of comments by Brown, and was not to be lost among the sombre revelation that the first-time coach, and the organisation, do not anticipate highly-touted rookie and #6 pick in this year's draft - Kentucky product Nerlens Noel - to appear at all in the upcoming campaign. Noel, the deeply scrutinised big man who (prior to June's NBA Draft) had long remained in the conversation as a possible #1 overall selection, despite suffering a torn ACL in his left knee in February, joined the franchise as a lone, flickering beacon of light and prosperity on an otherwise disjointed, lacking squad with gaping holes and ill-conceived contractual negotiations. The Sixers' new regime unashamedly ushered in wholesale changes to the team in acquiring the injured Noel, and hitting the restart button by sending All-Star point guard Jrue Holiday to New Orleans, receiving the nimble Kentucky centre and the Pelicans' protected 2014 first round pick in return. All of this shuffling and reshaping, it should be mentioned, occurred well prior to the appointment of Brett Brown as the man in charge. The fact that the organisation withstood a span from April to August without an official head coach is ominously reflective of the state of affairs.

Brown takes the reigns of this undisputed mess following 11 seasons on the San Antonio sidelines, as a recent inductee of the New England Basketball Hall of Fame, and with a four year stint as head coach of the Australian national team under his belt that saw them place 7th at the 2012 London Olympics. Wisely, Brown protected himself and assured stability and job security by insisting upon a lengthy four year contract, displaying a clear awareness of the basketball debris that burdens his new roster. He enters the fray in the midst of discussions and expert opinion that place these 76ers in contention to break the franchise's own mark for the worst 82-game record in NBA history, an unenviable task, to say the least. The declaration that Noel is unlikely to play a part at all in the team's 2013-14 schedule evokes horrific memories for a fan base that endured a treacherous run with the costly, broken down Andrew Bynum, who failed to register a single minute in a Sixer uniform last season, and does little to discredit this level of doom-and-gloom conversation.

With the regular season fast-approaching, Philadelphia figures to put forth a starting crew 'headlined' by holdovers Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner, and Spencer Hawes, a trio responsible for middling, subdued results when sharing substantial minutes together. As lineup regulars in recent seasons, the Turner-Young-Hawes combination appeared in a considerable sample size of 74 regular season outings in 2012-13, managing a meagre +/- of +0.1 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com stats. This, if anything, is a harsh truth for Brown and illustrative of what he will have to work with in his inaugural season on the job. Brown will struggle mightily to address the barren offensive output overseen by Doug Collins, which was good for a placement of 30th in the league rankings, with an average of 93.2 points per game, also per NBA.com. The Sixers were able to move the ball relatively freely and establish themselves in the assists department, nevertheless, dishing out 22.8 helpers per game - good for 11th in the league - whilst limiting their turnovers to an honest 13.0 per contest, 2nd best in the Association. Their ability to share, value, and manage the basketball almost certainly followed budding star Jrue Holiday out the door, however. In addition to this, spacing and opposing defense's packing the paint is destined to plague the Sixers play, at least until they attempt to address the shallowness of their outside shooting.

Philadelphia guard Evan Turner's 2012-13 shot chart (where yellow represents league-average, green above-average, and red below-average), courtesy of NBA.com/stats.

Neither Evan Turner nor Thaddeus Young holds the capability to wilfully and/or adequately stretch the floor, with Turner hovering either at or below league-average from all areas behind the three-point line, while of Young's negligible eight tries from beyond-the-arc, he cashed in on only a solitary attempt. These facts, in congruence with Spencer Hawes' admirable gunslinging attitude from the outside and the ongoing knee troubles of reliable veteran Jason Richardson, seem a certain formula for an overcrowded frontline and an inefficiently orchestrated offense. Hawes, despite an obvious willingness to lurk on the perimeter, nailed a melancholy 31% of his 19 hoists from the left-wing, and didn't serve any better on the opposing side of the floor, hitting just 1 of 11. Unquestionably, this does not bode well for Brown or the 76ers, and has the makings of a paltry, below-average scheme, even before one considers the plethora of minutes likely to be handed to incumbent starting point guard Michael Carter-Williams, who netted an eye-gauging 39.8% of his field goals over a 66-game career at Syracuse. Carter-Williams launched a disproportionate 137 long balls over that same span, sinking an uninspiring 42 of them.

How Brown elects to distribute and balance minutes over the course of the season will auger an influence on the team's offensive mould to an extent, yet he more than anyone, though, will be aware of the scarce pickings on hand. Assuredly, Brown will look to accommodate the poor shooting prowess of the roster by allocating starter's minutes to fourth year guard James Anderson, a guard who has nailed 39.1% of his shots from downtown in sporadic time with San Antonio and Houston. The material outcome of this kind of dependence on Anderson will prove a learning curve for both player and coach, alike. Where Brown will not receive any production is from former lottery pick Royce White, previously of the Houston Rockets, whom the Sixers discarded this past week, having only traded for him in July. Philadelphia holds the dubious honour of being the second NBA team to give up on White, the individual who is yet to log any regular season minutes.

Brett Brown will head into Wednesday's opener at home to Miami hoping to complement his likely starters of Carter-Williams, Anderson, Turner, Young, and Hawes, with some form of bench concoction consisting of fourth year big Lavoy Allen, combo guard Tony Wroten, and relative NBA no-names Daniel Orton and Hollis Thompson. Philly will exhibit an ironically thin lineup for an organisation desperately pining for the enthusiasm of a city and a disenchanted fan base, emblazoning the team arena, merchandise and neighbourhoods with the ambiguous motto of 'Together We Build'. Cynicism aside, it will be interesting to the NBA junkie to observe how the faultlessly-honest Brown seeks to massage the veritable mess of a roster at his disposal, and just how low the squad will sink into the muddy waters of the perennial 'tanking' discussions.

Image courtesy of nba.com/sixers.

Don't despair, Sixer fans, together we build.