Considering Mr. Wittman's Wonderful Wizards Emporium

Earlier in the season, I approached Conor D. Dirks of ESPN's TrueHoop Network Wizards blog Truth About It. I was seeking Conor's timely two-cents on the state of the Washington basketball union, and he more than appropriately addressed the subject. You can find our January exchange here, for greater context. Recently, I once again found myself in search of Conor's well of Wizards wisdom, left befuddled by the team's persisting, steady successes. He more than kindly answered the call, compiling a comprehensive catalogue of astute analysis and "savvy" suggestions. The following is the product of our virtual to-ing and fro-ing, listed in no particular order:

Angus Crawford: Nene went down with a sprained MCL during Washington's February 24 win over Cleveland. Prior to this specific injury, the Wizards had gone 8-34 in games played without the Brazilian pivot in the lineup. Since this injury, however, the team is sitting neatly at 4-1 -- including a gritty triple-overtime win in Toronto last Thursday. In sum: what the hell is going on?

Conor D. Dirks: Good times. Good times. Or bad teams. Wins against Orlando, Philadelphia, and Utah are better than losses against Orlando, Philadelphia, and Utah, but this is a better team than the one that existed during previous periods of absence from the Brazilian, and the Wizards were strong favorites to win those games even without the numinous experience of Nene's tremendum. The Wizards of years past aren't worth mentioning (barely ever), but earlier this season, when Nene missed a few games, the Wizards were also dealing with an injury to Martell Webster, an injury to Trevor Ariza, an injury to Chris Singleton, and a limited Marcin Gortat, who had only just joined the team after the trade from Phoenix.

There is no silver lining when your second-most important player goes down for six weeks with an injury, but the Wizards are fortunate in that they have the easiest remaining schedule in the NBA. An easy schedule by no means guarantees success, though, and my "sources" say the Wizards still have to go out and win those games/these are all NBA players/guys have pride/you have to respect your opponent/Jupiter's moon Europa has a sizable core which some believe to measure around one-third of its radii, etc.

Wins against actual, non-tanking teams like Toronto come from a confluence of events which usually includes two of the following three items: 1) All-Star level play from John Wall; 2) good 3-point shooting from Beal, Webster, and Ariza; 3) Heavy pick and roll action from Marcin Gortat. The Toronto win featured ample amounts of #1 and #3, with a very notable absence from #2. The Wizards shoot almost 10% better behind the arc in wins than they do in losses both as a team, and by each individual shooter.

AC: After the team suffered the blow of Nene's prolonged absence, it was announced that they had signed former NBA journeyman and lottery pick Drew Gooden. Yes, that Drew Gooden. Did this actually happen, or did society as a whole enter the Twilight Zone? Can you confirm for us that Drew Gooden does indeed still exist as a person, and as a basket-shooting man?

CDD: Drew Gooden, good gracious. So far, the commentary from play-by-play great Steve Buckhantz has been more about the did-you-know-oh-you-didn't-but-you-still-don't-care trivia factoid that Drew Gooden totally has an apartment in Bethesda, Maryland than any basketball-related reasons Washington fans might have to invest in Drew Gooden, Wizard.

Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not disputing the fact that Bethesda is on the red line of the DC Metro system, or that it's practically a part of the District. Bethesda is legitimate! Be proud, Bethesdans! But really, that's the best we can do? What's that you say? He only really has the apartment because his girlfriend owns a business in Bethesda? Awesome. It's probably too much to ask Comcast SportsNet to ask the hard-hitting (and wildly inappropriate) questions regarding whether this apartment ownership/rental is part of a more traditionally furtive (and traditionally D.C.) arrangement.

But I'm not sure we can blame Steve Buckhantz. Drew Gooden isn't compelling. He did surpass Otto Porter's career high in last night's game against the Jazz though! And looked good doing it.

He also famously tried to negotiate a buyout after being traded to the Wizards on February 13, 2010, failed to reach an agreement on said buyout, reluctantly showed up at the Verizon Center to report to Coach Flip Saunders at a shootaround (even after promising Saunders he had no intention of playing for a rebuilding team), and then found out while he was there that he'd been flipped to the Los Angeles Clippers in the same trade that packaged Antawn Jamison to the Cavaliers. The hilarious part about this story is that Gooden asked Antawn for a ride to the hotel in Jamison's Bentley, and then got caught by a flood of reporters in the parking lot who were desperate to speak with a semi-beloved, departing Jamison. So there's Drew fucking Gooden, awkwardly hanging back behind Jamison while the quote-getters swarm, suddenly cognizant that he had been traded to an actual team with actual reporters, but not feeling sheepish enough to bail and just find a taxi.

That's probably enough on Drew Gooden. Improbably, Kyle Weidie, John Converse Townsend, Adam McGinnis and I recounted some of the other Twilight Zone-esque connections Gooden has to the Wizards (there are more!) and talked about his spirit animal. Reader beware: there are mentions of astral projection and colugo.

AC: All season long, a glance down at Randy Wittman's quote sheet has meant trifling through a tireless tirade of anti-advanced metrics qualms. Wittman is developing an identity of infamy in the basketball community for his undying opposition to analytics. On the other hand, from the outside looking in, your man "Skinny Ted" Leonsis appears to be quite progressive and open-minded on that front. Surely this kind of hierarchical disconnect is counterproductive, no? What might be done for the organization to adequately address to opposing outlooks on the value of stats-based decision-making?

CDD: Randy, I feel so small when you're mean to me! Along with my colleagues at TAI, I've tracked the application of Wittman's vapid "take what the defense gives you" maxim for good offense over the course of the season. Washington has a stat geek's wet dream in terms of personnel (the Wizards are among the top teams in 3-point percentage and field goal percentage at the rim), but irresponsibly lead the NBA in mid-range jump shots while hitting them at an 8th-worst clip. They also have a coach who, when asked about finding good, non-midrange shots by Kyle Weidie, said this (after a pregnant, nerve-wracking pause):

“So you’re saying that a 15-foot open look is not good?
“You take open shots. You take open shots. Where they are is dictated by what the defense does. If you predicate what kind of shot you’re going to take not based on what you’re doing reading the defense, you’re not going to get good shots. I just worry about goods shots.
“You know what? Those numbers you can stick… Alright? You know, all you analytical people that take that… You take good shots, that’s the most important thing. Maybe we’re not taking good midrange shots, maybe we’re taking contested ones. I understand the numbers are there for a reason, we look at the numbers, but to sit there and… We got a good, open shot we’re taking, I don’t care where it is.”

So, yeah, Gus, you can stick those numbers...well, we'll never know. Suffice it to say, Wittman's Wizards are in a unilateral, unrequited love affair with the mid-range jumper that rivals my affinity for Britney Spears in 1999 in terms of hopelessness.

And it might turn out to be the reason that Ted Leonsis (who penned an advanced stat dump after the loss to Memphis) goes with another head coaching candidate this offseason, when the contracts of both Wittman and team president Ernie Grunfeld expire. But I do believe it's important to temper expectations regarding how fully a coach will embrace and implement stats-based decision making. There's a balance. Players aren't normally all that interested in hearing reams of data. Rather, as John Converse Townsend noted, it's about providing the correct clues. Wittman's churlishness regarding numbers doesn't inspire confidence that he is interested in nudging his players in a direction that takes any amount of the voluminous information regarding mid-range jump shots under consideration. In the meantime, the Wizards will probably be less relevant than they could be otherwise.

AC: Eric Maynor's mystical journey through the 2014 NBA season as an offensively repugnant reserve point guard has taken its talents elsewhere since being dispatched at the deadline. Melon-balling Maynor's putrid play from the rotation "helped" [Wizards GM] Ernie and the boys attain the academic and locker room services of the super savvy Prof. Andre Miller. (Aside: With Miller, Nene, & good ol' Uncle Al Harrington, the 'Zards are doing their best to re-assemble the 2011 Denver Nuggets) On a scale of Fabricio Oberto to Nick Young, how many sads did it cause you to say goodbye to #MaynorTime?

CDD: When Eric Maynor was still the presumptive backup for John Wall in November and early December 2013, the opening tip of each game was naught else but the flip of an hourglass, the first step of an inevitable death march which culminated in perfunctory minutes for Eric Maynor. Those minutes were the worst minutes. Fabricio Oberto is too many sads. JaVale McGee, who was a joy to watch leave at a previous trade deadline, is too many sads. The departure of Eric Maynor inspires nothing but relief. The trade that sent him to Philadelphia, on the other hand, is simply another example of team president Ernie Grunfeld's inimitable knack for cleaning up after himself at the expense of hard-to-conceptualize, but very real, potential future assets. It should not be so easily forgotten that Eric Maynor was signed mere hours into the 2013 summer free agency period. Grunfeld was that sure.

AC: For the good of society, please summarise Jan Vesely aka the Air Wolf's tenure in Washington D.C. in one chronically-outdated 1990s song.

CDD: When Jan Vesely was drafted in 2011, the Wizards desperately needed a running mate for John Wall to make the team exciting to watch and play into Wall's (at that time) speed-based game. It became rapidly apparent that Vesely wasn't that somebody yet. For years, Washington wondered, Washington watched (like a hawk, even)...and finally Washington decided that Airwolf, inescapably likable as he is, would never become that somebody. Aaliyah provides the soundtrack.

Wittman, Witchcraft, & Wizardry: Detailed thoughts on the Washington Professional Basketball Team from Conor D. Dirks

Washington centre Marcin Gortat.

16-19, 6th in the Eastern Conference standings. That's the mark of the Washington Wizards, the literal definition of a middling, hovering-around-.500 NBA basketball team. The Wiz are desperate to make the playoffs, having failed to feature in meaningful, postseason play in more than five calendar years. The phrases "sanity" and "Washington Wizards" aren't always uttered in the same sentence, which is why a sense of humour, patience, an intricate knowledge of the game, and a vague degree of masochism are often requirements of 'Zards fandom. Look no further than Conor D. Dirks, reporter and contributor at ESPN's True Hoop Network Wizards blog "Truth About It", member of the site's D.C. Council, architect of the #MaynorTime flowchart, and your source of all things Jan Vesely and Kevin Seraphin. I implored Conor to share his thoughts on the state of the 2014 Wizards, and he kindly obliged. Here's what the #MaynorTime initiator had to say about the season so far:

Angus Crawford: Backup point guard has been a bit of a problem for the Wizards all season long. Eric Maynor was brought in over the summer to play that role, but has struggled mightily – his numbers make for severely grim reading: 6.8 PER, 36.5% TS%, 4.3% FTr – as your #MaynorTime updates and flow-chart have detailed. Are you confident some extra minutes for Garrett Temple can ease the pain, or is it a position that needs to be addressed prior to the playoffs?

Conor D. Dirks: Such is the chaotic maelstrom of the post-backup era in D.C. that not even Garrett Temple is confident that Garrett Temple can ease the pain seared into the eyeballs of Washington basketball consumers in the wake of the coming (and subsequent self-destruction) of Eric Maynor. Garrett Temple, who has stuck with the team for very Wittman-esque reasons (eye-test defense and effort, selfless play characterised by reluctance to shoot on offense), more or less amounts to the helmet you might wear if you were forced to ride a bicycle on a day an old soothsaying lady predicted you would crash said bicycle. 

Conor's labour of love: the #MaynorTime Flowchart.

Temple's net on/off court numbers per 100 possessions are not good: minus-5.2. Maynor's net on/off court numbers per 100 possessions are the stuff of legend: minus-28.5. Temple, unlike Maynor, has had the benefit of running his offense through Nene, and so his "improvement" over Maynor is a bit skewed. But Temple has been moderately successful...his most popular squadron by minutes played together this season (Temple-Webster-Porter-Vesely-Nene) has an offensive rating of 0.85 and a defensive rating of 0.80. So, a Temple-run (so sorry) offense is painful to watch, but a Temple-led defense has been more than alright against the NBA's substitute brigades.

As for the playoffs? Well, the Wizards need to address a lot of things prior to the playoffs, but Maynor's player option for next season has to give cost-conscious Ted Leonsis pause. Truth be told, the team probably should have signed D.J. Augustin, or Kendall Marshall (they had him on an administrative level after the Gortat trade), and probably still should cut Al Harrington or Chris Singleton (sigh) to sign Rodrique Beaubois. If an Andre Miller deal with Denver is a possibility, as suggested by Amin Elhassan, I would support such a thing.

AC: Where did you stand on the decision to execute the Marcin Gortat trade on the eve of the season? Gortat is averaging a career-low 9.6 rebounds per-36 minutes and is shooting his worst percentage from the field (51.6%) since his rookie season. Has his play thus far justified the move, and should the Wizards front office feel obligated to re-sign him on the basis that they shipped out a first-round pick in the deal?

CDD: From a purely objective standpoint, Marcin Gortat's play has not justified the first-round pick (in a draft allegedly sporting a fine group of young basketmen) the Wizards surrendered in order to acquire him. With that said, it is easy from afar to devalue the peripheral positives of winning basketball games, and Gortat, despite his questionable rim-protection, frustrating lack of efficiency from the floor, and tendency to avoid contact, has made the Wizards a better team than they would have been had they not made the trade. 

And that's the key thing: Emeka Okafor, as hinted by Ted Leonsis recently, is most likely out for the season. Can you imagine this team with either Kevin Seraphin or Jan Vesely starting? You think you can, but I've seen seasons of this stuff, and it's enough to break a person. It's also enough to keep a young point guard from the recognition he deserves, as shown by Wall's relative obscurity in the eyes of the nation prior to this season, even though he was producing similar stats to Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook during the first few years of their NBA careers. And more than that, becoming a decent team is a gamble on the part of the front office, that modest success combined with two young star guards will be enough to break the "overpay third-tier players" cycle that so many historically underachieving teams are mired in, including the Wizards.

So: the "too long; didn't read" version? Although I was upset on the day of the trade, it was because I didn't fully understand the extent of Okafor's injury. Now that it seems that Okafor will be out the entire season, I understand the reasons Washington had for making the deal, even if I'm not fully comfortable with their strategy. My hope is that the Wizards will re-sign Gortat (to a contract at or below his current rate) not because of procedural guilt or face-saving, but because his play has caught up with his talk, which resembles Papa John's puffery at this early stage.

AC: The Wiz are 2-4 in overtime games and just 1-3 in games decided by 3pts or less, is there a concerning trend with their late-game execution or a clear explanation for their inability to perform in tight situations?

CDD: This question doesn't even contemplate games in which the Wizards have held insanely large leads (against the Cavs and the Pelicans) but have almost blown them due to holistic breakdowns in their offense late in games. When a team can't hold a lead, can't win close games, and can't beat good teams (the Wizards have only one win against a team with a greater than .500 record), the blame falls with the coach. It falls with the coach because it is a clear failure to adjust. Sure, the Wizards have enough talent (and they do have quite a bit of that) to play pickup offense for three quarters and beat the cellar-dwellers of the NBA, but good coaches are creative, can call plays on the fly that react to adjustments from the opposition, and can draw up late-game plays out of timeouts. Randy Wittman (who absolutely aided in the culture-change brought about in the wake of the departures of McGee, Young, and Blatche) is unfortunately not that kind of coach.

AC: The mysterious Otto Porter made his NBA debut December 6 and has logged 172 total minutes since. How is his progress tracking, and does he have a place in the rotation, per se? It must be painful for ‘Zards fans to be aware of the Greek Freak’s (Giannis Antetokounmpo) existence, is it best to follow Porter’s career in a vacuum at this point?

CDD: Most of us at TAI have joked about Otto Porter's invisibility since his debut, and I really do swear I saw a Bucks player pass through his body during Washington's loss to Milwaukee, but Otto hasn't been a total wash. He has, however, been a disappointment. Prior to the draft, he was advertised as an "NBA-ready" player, and that was simply not the case. Marcin Gortat joked that Porter's calves were half the size of Gortat's forearms, and he's right! More than that, Porter seems as shy on the court as he is behind a microphone. As you might imagine, the former is not as endearing as the latter (and the latter stopped being endearing after draft night). 

Porter does have a spot in the rotation, alongside Martell Webster, on the second unit. He has occasionally displayed some savvy around the basket, the ability to hit a catch-and-shoot midrange J (but not an NBA 3-pointer), and has not been overly embarrassed on defense. I wish I could say nicer things. Going forward, my expectations approach nil, and I'll hope to be surprised. The problem with comparing Porter to other NBA rookies is that Washington has been unable to develop raw players into rotation players over Grunfeld's tenure, and a player like Giannis who has developed well, and rapidly, with Milwaukee (a team that has also been able to develop "raw," Mister Fantastic-esque players like John Henson and Larry Sanders) would not necessarily have developed so well with the Wizards, despite better surrounding talent.

AC: Washington has a pair of five game home stands coming up, how important is it that the team capitalises on the comforts of the Verizon Center in order to generate some consistency?

CDD: As CBS Sports' Matt Moore mentioned today in his NBA power rankings:

They'll get it together, go on a winning streak, and lock up a playoff spot for sure. Any time. Yup. Right around the corner. Just wait. Gonna happen. No question. ... ... ... ...

Sarcasm aside, the observation is spot-on. The Wizards have followed every string of successes with equal or greater strings of failure, weaving a basketball web that is nowhere near up to code. They have yet to "get it together," and even more concerning is their lack of success at the Verizon Center. They have the fourth-best road record in the East (not like that's something to brag about, yet) at 9-10, but are surprisingly below .500 as well at home (at 7-9). Even last year, when they went 29-53 on the season, the Wizards had a winning home record (22-19). If you paid attention to all of those numbers sandwiching dashes, you'll also see that they've already won two more road games this season than they did all last year.

I do expect that they'll improve at home, but that expectation could change if they aren't, as you suggest, able to capitalise on two upcoming home stands.

Interesting. Expertise and colourful, insightful commentary are ubiquitous over at Truth About It. Do yourself a favour and find Conor on Twitter @ConorDDirks, and follow his work at TAI. 

UPDATE: Ernie Grunfeld & the Washington Professional Basketball Team Liked My Suggestion

Ernie Grunfeld, Washington Wizards General Manager and orchestrator of the awful, awful trade that sent 2009 #5 draft pick (later Ricky Rubio) to Minnesota in exchange for Randy Foye and Mike Miller, took notice of Prophecies from the Parquet's idea and acted quickly. Grunfeld, sensing the pressure and need for a playoff push, moved to bring Phoenix Suns centre Marcin Gortat to D.C., in exchange for Emeka Okafor and his expiring contract. Typically, this may pass as a relatively run-of-the-mill NBA transaction where one general manager feeling the heat attempted to move the needle toward a 6th, 7th, or 8th spot in the playoffs. Not so fast. Introducing one of our scheduled, regular features earlier today (Death by Trade Machine), PFP posted at 11:22 Pacific Standard Time that it would be prudent for Washington to move the Okafor contract, and to look no further than Phoenix for a potential trading partner. The purpose of this feature, as mentioned in the breakdown, is not to stand as a foreshadower of future moves or to capitalise on a raft of rumoured deals, but rather to attempt to use logic and come up with reasonable solutions for unbalanced, misdirected, and/or mediocre teams - with the help of the ESPN Trade Machine.

The fact that this took place within hours of the post/suggestion (with SBNation's Drew Garrison posting about the trade at 5:45 EST) is a gigantic coincidence and highly comical, yet it highlights the future value and potential for our staple of player movement ideas and prognostications.

The mechanics of the deal are far from identical, most notably Dragic is not included, with the Suns sending out Gortat, veteran guard Shannon Brown, Malcolm Lee, and second-year guard Kendall Marshall, and receiving Okafor in return. The teams also exchanged future first-round draft picks, of note for a Phoenix team with a view toward what is considered to be a loaded 2014 Draft.

Ultimately, the man in charge of the Wizards - Ernie Grunfeld - will be judged by Washington's ability to reach the postseason, and whether or not the current construct of the team is such that they are positioned for further advancements up the standings.

Keep a close eye on Death by Trade Machine.

'Death by Trade Machine' is a regular feature running on this blog, where PFP contributors teleport themselves into the minds of NBA front offices (through the wonders of the ESPN NBA Trade Machine), and attempt to conjure solutions to the nagging issues of NBA teams. Trade ideas may be centred on team balance, salary cap questions, rumoured player dissatisfaction, or any combination of these factors. NOTE: These posts in no way are intended to serve as forecasts or predictions for future transactions, but rather as a laid back way of indulging in the insanity of NBA player movement. 

Death by Trade Machine #1 - Washington Would Like to Make the Playoffs

Cap mechanics of PFP's proposed trade.

Mired in mediocrity for a number of years, the Washington Wizards have not featured in the NBA playoffs since signing Gilbert Arenas to his infamous $111M contract extension in July, 2008. Former #1 overall draft pick and franchise point guard, John Wall, (with a new contract of his own to boast) would like to change that. Wall does not need any reminding of the status of his Wizards, though, with recent reports suggesting that he intends to label each pair of game shoes throughout the upcoming season with the word 'playoffs'. Amidst a flurry of offseason signings and retooling, Washington appear to have been grouped in at the lower end of the Eastern Conference (along with the new-look rosters of Cleveland and Detroit) as a team considered likely to make a playoff push. This level of newfound optimism is not unique to media circles, either.

Following a strong finish to this past season, the Wizards elected to solidify their roster by retaining three-point specialist Martell Webster and investing the 3rd overall pick in the draft in Georgetown product, Otto Porter Jr. Persistently for Washington, however, health has been a lingering concern, one that has swiftly diminished the brightness of their outlook in seasons past. Despite fans finding solace in an unfamiliar level of stability and direction in recent franchise manoeuvres, a cloud of injury and uncertainty still lurks, with key piece Emeka Okafor sidelined indefinitely with a herniated disk in his neck. This sombre news only compounds the reality that starting centre Nene has struggled to stay on the court, appearing in just 72 games for the team over an 18 month span.

With this in mind, Washington seems a perfect starting place for the introduction of the 'Death by Trade Machine' column, as Prophecies from the Parquet looks for suitable trading partners and the right balance to put these dwindling Wizards back into the May basketball schedule, and restore the team to its former glory. And where better to start the search than one of the teams immersed in season-long indifference, with little desire to win now. I speak of none other than the Phoenix Suns, a team presently stuck in the unwanted quagmire of being an unequivocally bad team, but not quite bad enough. The Suns spent their summer amassing assets for the future, and simultaneously throwing in the proverbial towel for the upcoming season. The team is left with the problem, nonetheless, that the roster still contains a number of legitimate, rotation NBA players - among them are starters Goran Dragic and Marcin Gortat. This Phoenix duo, one of whom has not been shy of publicising his feelings about the organisation and its state of affairs, seem a near perfect fit for an exchange with the injured Emeka Okafor's expiring contract.

A simple swap such as this, perhaps with an added sweetener - such as one of Washington's handful of underdeveloped young forwards - would accelerate the aims for both parties. Placing Gortat in the Wizards' frame would form (health permitting) an intimidating frontline with Nene, while Dragic is a proven player capable of logging heavy minutes at either guard spot. Dragic could conceivably complement the current setup of the Wizards' backcourt, offering a preferable alternative to their present backups, whilst arriving at an affordable, manageable price. For Phoenix, removing two of the primary holdovers from a previous regime, and two competent players at that, would likely result in a shift further down the standings, but not one that the franchise appears altogether opposed to. The cap cost is not too great for a Washington organisation quite clearly grouped into 'win now' mode, with Gortat's deal due to expire at season's end, and Dragic (theoretically) arriving at the aforementioned respectable rate. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how these two situations develop, respectively, as we can expect both to resurface in the Death by Trade Machine clouds across the year.

‘Death by Trade Machine’ is a regular feature running on this blog, where PFP contributors teleport themselves into the minds of NBA front offices (through the wonders of the ESPN NBA Trade Machine), and attempt to conjure solutions to the nagging issues of NBA teams. Trade ideas may be centred on team balance, salary cap questions, rumoured player dissatisfaction, or any combination of these factors. NOTE: These posts in no way are intended to serve as forecasts or predictions for future transactions, but rather as a laid back way of indulging in the insanity of NBA player movement.