Caught in the Winds of Change - A Brief Outlook for the 2013-14 Toronto Raptors

Image courtesy of The Canadian Press/Frank Gunn.

In the throws of a nine-month window defined by two franchise-altering (at least in one sense) trades, the Toronto Raptors enter the season undoubtedly beneath the shadows of ambiguity, or so it would seem to the outside observer. Following deals that shipped efficient, linchpin point guard Jose Calderon and former lottery picks Ed Davis and Andrea Bargnani across the border, and brought back anti-media darling Rudy Gay, the soft touch of Steve Novak and a bevy of future draft picks, the organisation is continuing to adjust to realities of the makeover, but does not appear content to settle and embrace its current status. Having failed to make the playoffs in any of the past 5 seasons, Toronto moved hastily to fire General Manager Bryan Colangelo, the man responsible for (among other things) the Bargnani pick, the unsuccessful signing of Hedo Turkoglu, and the team's misfired exchange for injury-prone centre Jermaine O'Neal. Timing aside, Colangelo illustrated an innate ability to attract the ire of Raptor reporters and faithful, alike. Notwithstanding this, the forecast was certain to be grim for the now-former GM as soon as high-rolling businessman Tim Leiweke was brought in as the new President and CEO of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment in April of this year.

Leiweke acted sharply in convincing reigning executive of the year, Nigerian-born Masai Ujiri (previously of the Denver Nuggets) to return to Toronto, at the rumoured price tag of 5 years, $15M. Ujiri assumes control of a team with clear identity crisis, clogged in somewhat of a transitional phase, with more than a handful of crucial decisions to be made in the coming months. The Raptors concluded the 2012-13 with a subpar 34-48 record, managing just a 21-20 stand at home, yet contrary to some dreary projections, this writer, for one, believes there is room for subtle, cautious optimism. Removing salaries from the equation, Toronto's showpiece is indisputably second-year, Lithuanian, polished prodigy Jonas Valunciunas - at the centre position - who led his national team to a silver medal at the 2013 Eurobasket tournament, and captured the honour of MVP of the 2013 Las Vegas Summer League. Valunciunas projects to be a prime candidate for a breakout season, with potential to make 'the leap' to the next level of play, and to affirm himself as a fixture of this team for years to come. 

Although uncertainty remains an undercurrent of this squad, one thing is clear days away from Opening Night - the team's starting five. The issue for Canada's team lies at the other end of the spectrum, a murky, unsure bench rotation. Ujiri rounded out the roster with the stopgap signings of former Indiana forward Tyler Hansbrough and fellow Pacers bench player D.J. Augustin, both on short-term deals. The balance of minutes and striving to avoid the overuse of starters figures to be an ongoing challenge for head coach Dwane Casey, who himself is entering the final year of a contract. The ceiling for Casey's team, as currently constructed, would likely be a 7th or 8th spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs, while a wayward stretch could leave the Raptors languishing toward the bottom of the standings and looking at the lottery, yet again.

The primary case for positivity is the sturdy, defensive-oriented frontcourt tandem of Amir Johnson (the eight-year man who finally has a chance to be an uncontested starter) and the highly-praised Valunciunas. According to NBA.com stats, the pair boasted a +/- of +8.2 points per 100 possessions, as they shared the floor across 35 games this past season. Moreover, when Jonas and Johnson featured as part of a unit that consisted of Lowry-DeRozan-Gay-Johnson-Valunciunas, the team held a stifling 12.6 point advantage over opponents with solid offensive percentages, also measured per 100 possessions. Toronto does have room to move on the rebounding front, however, ranking a lowly 28th in that department for the season. The organisation will hope that extracting the poor-rebounder in Andrea Bargnani from the equation will constitute part of the solution to this problem. Furthermore, the coaching staff will look for reserve wing defender Landry Fields (gulp) to place a facade before the question marks of the above-mentioned Hansbrough-Augustin combination, who gave away an advantage of 4.9 points per 100 possessions to opponents when they played together in 76 regular season contests for Indiana. 

Ultimately, this franchise is not 'about' the approaching campaign, nor is it truly concerned with championship contention, but rather, it is fully immersed in an overhaul of the roster, team branding, and league-wide respectability. There are glimmers of hope lodged within the mismatched playing roster, though observers will maintain a watchful eye, and anticipate and wonder what the next move will be. Rudy Gay comes at an unwanted price tag, and Kyle Lowry will be playing on an expiring deal, hence, Raptor rumours will be a season-long inevitability. 

This team may not be playoff-bound in 2014, nonetheless, don't sleep on the potential of their prized possession - Jonas Valunciunas.

Death by Trade Machine #1 - Washington Would Like to Make the Playoffs

Cap mechanics of PFP's proposed trade.

Mired in mediocrity for a number of years, the Washington Wizards have not featured in the NBA playoffs since signing Gilbert Arenas to his infamous $111M contract extension in July, 2008. Former #1 overall draft pick and franchise point guard, John Wall, (with a new contract of his own to boast) would like to change that. Wall does not need any reminding of the status of his Wizards, though, with recent reports suggesting that he intends to label each pair of game shoes throughout the upcoming season with the word 'playoffs'. Amidst a flurry of offseason signings and retooling, Washington appear to have been grouped in at the lower end of the Eastern Conference (along with the new-look rosters of Cleveland and Detroit) as a team considered likely to make a playoff push. This level of newfound optimism is not unique to media circles, either.

Following a strong finish to this past season, the Wizards elected to solidify their roster by retaining three-point specialist Martell Webster and investing the 3rd overall pick in the draft in Georgetown product, Otto Porter Jr. Persistently for Washington, however, health has been a lingering concern, one that has swiftly diminished the brightness of their outlook in seasons past. Despite fans finding solace in an unfamiliar level of stability and direction in recent franchise manoeuvres, a cloud of injury and uncertainty still lurks, with key piece Emeka Okafor sidelined indefinitely with a herniated disk in his neck. This sombre news only compounds the reality that starting centre Nene has struggled to stay on the court, appearing in just 72 games for the team over an 18 month span.

With this in mind, Washington seems a perfect starting place for the introduction of the 'Death by Trade Machine' column, as Prophecies from the Parquet looks for suitable trading partners and the right balance to put these dwindling Wizards back into the May basketball schedule, and restore the team to its former glory. And where better to start the search than one of the teams immersed in season-long indifference, with little desire to win now. I speak of none other than the Phoenix Suns, a team presently stuck in the unwanted quagmire of being an unequivocally bad team, but not quite bad enough. The Suns spent their summer amassing assets for the future, and simultaneously throwing in the proverbial towel for the upcoming season. The team is left with the problem, nonetheless, that the roster still contains a number of legitimate, rotation NBA players - among them are starters Goran Dragic and Marcin Gortat. This Phoenix duo, one of whom has not been shy of publicising his feelings about the organisation and its state of affairs, seem a near perfect fit for an exchange with the injured Emeka Okafor's expiring contract.

A simple swap such as this, perhaps with an added sweetener - such as one of Washington's handful of underdeveloped young forwards - would accelerate the aims for both parties. Placing Gortat in the Wizards' frame would form (health permitting) an intimidating frontline with Nene, while Dragic is a proven player capable of logging heavy minutes at either guard spot. Dragic could conceivably complement the current setup of the Wizards' backcourt, offering a preferable alternative to their present backups, whilst arriving at an affordable, manageable price. For Phoenix, removing two of the primary holdovers from a previous regime, and two competent players at that, would likely result in a shift further down the standings, but not one that the franchise appears altogether opposed to. The cap cost is not too great for a Washington organisation quite clearly grouped into 'win now' mode, with Gortat's deal due to expire at season's end, and Dragic (theoretically) arriving at the aforementioned respectable rate. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how these two situations develop, respectively, as we can expect both to resurface in the Death by Trade Machine clouds across the year.

‘Death by Trade Machine’ is a regular feature running on this blog, where PFP contributors teleport themselves into the minds of NBA front offices (through the wonders of the ESPN NBA Trade Machine), and attempt to conjure solutions to the nagging issues of NBA teams. Trade ideas may be centred on team balance, salary cap questions, rumoured player dissatisfaction, or any combination of these factors. NOTE: These posts in no way are intended to serve as forecasts or predictions for future transactions, but rather as a laid back way of indulging in the insanity of NBA player movement.