A season in the dark: Talking Philly basketball with Tom Sunnergren of Hoop76.com

A rare moment of celebration for the 2014 Sixers. 

The Philadelphia 76ers are one of the NBA's more peculiar teams, to say the least. After a miraculous, scorching 3-0 start to the regular season, the Sixers' 2014 journey has encountered some extremely rocky terrain -- including conceding 121+ points on five separate occasions in regulation games, and becoming the "owners" of some unwanted, murky defensive records. Looking for perspective and some semblance of solace for disenchanted Sixer fans, I sought the wisdom of Tom Sunnergren of Hoop76.com, an ESPN True Hoop Network blog, who has the unenviable task of regularly watching Philadelphia basketball. Tom offered his educated, impassioned insights, and I've compiled them below.

Angus Crawford: Michael-Carter Williams did not play from December 4 to December 20, during which time the Sixers lost seven straight games. What changes most about this team’s identity without the rookie point guard in the line-up? 

Tom Sunnergren: Here's the thing about that: Michael Carter-Williams is very good, and the guy who replaces him in the lineup, Tony Wroten, is not. By measure of wins produced, Carter-Williams is the most productive player on the team on a per-minute basis while Wroten’s – 1.39 wins produced make him not only the worst member of the 2013-14 Sixers, but the least productive player in the NBA this side of Anthony Bennett. The calculus is pretty simple: take mediocre team, replace its best player with one of the worst in basketball and…hey presto! You’ve got a seven game losing streak.

AC: As a result of the Jrue Holiday-Nerlens Noel draft day trade, the Sixers will receive New Orleans’ top-five protected first round pick in 2014. The Pelicans are 12th in the loaded Western Conference at 15-20, with the pick currently slated to be in the 11-12 range, however, the team recently lost both Holiday and Ryan Anderson to significant injuries. Should Philly fans be concerned that the pick is in danger of the protected territory, or excited to see it slide to a more favourable spot in the lottery? 

TS: Excited. While Sixers fans are, as you pointed out, in the delicate position of rooting for a very narrow band of outcomes for the Pelicans (the porridge has to be just right) the New Orleans roster is strong enough that, even with the recent spate of injuries they’ve suffered, it’s hard to imagine them finishing 2013-14 with a worse record than the dreadful quintet that’s currently at the bottom of the league standings (Milwaukee, Orlando, Utah, Philly and Boston). Especially if the apotheosis of the 'Brow continues.

AC: Philadelphia failed to win a game in regulation from November 9 to December 29, how tough was it to follow the team during that stretch, and what do you look for when you watch Sixers games in the 2013-14 season?

TS: Losing isn’t fun, but it doesn't sting quite as badly when it’s expected and purposeful. (To test this point: take an informal survey of the mood of Sixers fans and Knicks fans.) And about that "purposeful" losing: The fact that the Sixers didn’t win a game in regulation from Nov. 9 to Dec. 29 wasn’t a failure—it was a triumph of roster engineering. The Sixers were doing precisely the thing they were designed to do: lose enough basketball games to land a difference maker in the 2014 draft.

Until then, I’m paying attention to things that will matter in 2014-15 and beyond: Michael Carter-Williams development as a distributor, defender, and possible first offensive option on a contending team. The trade value of Hawes, Turner, and Young. How Brett Brown’s acquitting himself as a head coach. Frankly, I’m encouraged by all of it. There’s a lot to like here.

AC: The Sixers have been a topic of trade rumours all season long – including Liberty Ballers' report that Thaddeus Young formally requested a trade – with a particular emphasis on Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes, and Young. They were also involved in discussions centred on disgruntled Rockets centre Omer Asik, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein. Who, of the Turner/Hawes/Young trio, do you expect to remain on the Sixers roster beyond the February trade deadline?

TS: I expect they’ll each be gone by the deadline. Hawes is developing a killer perimeter game (he’s quietly 12th in the NBA in 3-point FG%), but he’s a free-agent at season’s end, and might be expensive to resign. Thad Young is under contract at a reasonable (if not overwhelmingly team-friendly) rate, but will be 28 at the start of his next deal—a point at which he, given the extent to which his game hinges on hustle and athleticism, might be beginning to decline. And Evan Turner is simply a bad player who, because he can score, has greater perceived value than actual value. With Hinkie pulling the strings, Turner is almost certainly playing in a new city by February.

AC: This team is a clear #1 in the NBA for pace of play, per basketball-reference.com, averaging over 100 possessions per game. They’re averaging 102.5 points per game, twelfth in the league, but are also dead last in opposition PPG and ranked 26th in the Association for defensive efficiency. How have you judged Brett Brown’s rookie season as head coach, and do you think the style of play that he’s employed for these Sixers is sustainable beyond this season?

TS: I think Brown’s been tremendous. He’s demonstrated his player development chops (see: Michael Carter-Williams' success) and, in a few short months, transformed the Sixers offense from a slow, plodding, midrange-enamoured catastrophe into the fastest team in basketball and a model of smart shot selection. Not bad. And I expect this approach will pay dividends over the long haul: playing fast forces matchup problems, wears down teams that aren't as well conditioned, and reduces variance. These are all good things.

If you wish to show some love for those in the City of Brotherly Love, you can follow Tom on Twitter @tsunnergren (I recommend), and track the content of Hoop76 @Hoop_76, and at Hoop76.com. 

'You have six NBA players' - All is Not Well in the City of Brotherly Love

Sixers head coach Brett Brown pondering a season of headaches.

Prior to the team's recent preseason loss at the hands of Cleveland in Columbus, Ohio, incoming head coach Brett Brown offered an honest, foreboding assessment of the status of 76ers basketball, confessing that Philadelphia are blessed with the fortunes of just six legitimate, capable, NBA-calibre players. This explicit denigration of the quality of the roster emerged from a series of comments by Brown, and was not to be lost among the sombre revelation that the first-time coach, and the organisation, do not anticipate highly-touted rookie and #6 pick in this year's draft - Kentucky product Nerlens Noel - to appear at all in the upcoming campaign. Noel, the deeply scrutinised big man who (prior to June's NBA Draft) had long remained in the conversation as a possible #1 overall selection, despite suffering a torn ACL in his left knee in February, joined the franchise as a lone, flickering beacon of light and prosperity on an otherwise disjointed, lacking squad with gaping holes and ill-conceived contractual negotiations. The Sixers' new regime unashamedly ushered in wholesale changes to the team in acquiring the injured Noel, and hitting the restart button by sending All-Star point guard Jrue Holiday to New Orleans, receiving the nimble Kentucky centre and the Pelicans' protected 2014 first round pick in return. All of this shuffling and reshaping, it should be mentioned, occurred well prior to the appointment of Brett Brown as the man in charge. The fact that the organisation withstood a span from April to August without an official head coach is ominously reflective of the state of affairs.

Brown takes the reigns of this undisputed mess following 11 seasons on the San Antonio sidelines, as a recent inductee of the New England Basketball Hall of Fame, and with a four year stint as head coach of the Australian national team under his belt that saw them place 7th at the 2012 London Olympics. Wisely, Brown protected himself and assured stability and job security by insisting upon a lengthy four year contract, displaying a clear awareness of the basketball debris that burdens his new roster. He enters the fray in the midst of discussions and expert opinion that place these 76ers in contention to break the franchise's own mark for the worst 82-game record in NBA history, an unenviable task, to say the least. The declaration that Noel is unlikely to play a part at all in the team's 2013-14 schedule evokes horrific memories for a fan base that endured a treacherous run with the costly, broken down Andrew Bynum, who failed to register a single minute in a Sixer uniform last season, and does little to discredit this level of doom-and-gloom conversation.

With the regular season fast-approaching, Philadelphia figures to put forth a starting crew 'headlined' by holdovers Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner, and Spencer Hawes, a trio responsible for middling, subdued results when sharing substantial minutes together. As lineup regulars in recent seasons, the Turner-Young-Hawes combination appeared in a considerable sample size of 74 regular season outings in 2012-13, managing a meagre +/- of +0.1 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com stats. This, if anything, is a harsh truth for Brown and illustrative of what he will have to work with in his inaugural season on the job. Brown will struggle mightily to address the barren offensive output overseen by Doug Collins, which was good for a placement of 30th in the league rankings, with an average of 93.2 points per game, also per NBA.com. The Sixers were able to move the ball relatively freely and establish themselves in the assists department, nevertheless, dishing out 22.8 helpers per game - good for 11th in the league - whilst limiting their turnovers to an honest 13.0 per contest, 2nd best in the Association. Their ability to share, value, and manage the basketball almost certainly followed budding star Jrue Holiday out the door, however. In addition to this, spacing and opposing defense's packing the paint is destined to plague the Sixers play, at least until they attempt to address the shallowness of their outside shooting.

Philadelphia guard Evan Turner's 2012-13 shot chart (where yellow represents league-average, green above-average, and red below-average), courtesy of NBA.com/stats.

Neither Evan Turner nor Thaddeus Young holds the capability to wilfully and/or adequately stretch the floor, with Turner hovering either at or below league-average from all areas behind the three-point line, while of Young's negligible eight tries from beyond-the-arc, he cashed in on only a solitary attempt. These facts, in congruence with Spencer Hawes' admirable gunslinging attitude from the outside and the ongoing knee troubles of reliable veteran Jason Richardson, seem a certain formula for an overcrowded frontline and an inefficiently orchestrated offense. Hawes, despite an obvious willingness to lurk on the perimeter, nailed a melancholy 31% of his 19 hoists from the left-wing, and didn't serve any better on the opposing side of the floor, hitting just 1 of 11. Unquestionably, this does not bode well for Brown or the 76ers, and has the makings of a paltry, below-average scheme, even before one considers the plethora of minutes likely to be handed to incumbent starting point guard Michael Carter-Williams, who netted an eye-gauging 39.8% of his field goals over a 66-game career at Syracuse. Carter-Williams launched a disproportionate 137 long balls over that same span, sinking an uninspiring 42 of them.

How Brown elects to distribute and balance minutes over the course of the season will auger an influence on the team's offensive mould to an extent, yet he more than anyone, though, will be aware of the scarce pickings on hand. Assuredly, Brown will look to accommodate the poor shooting prowess of the roster by allocating starter's minutes to fourth year guard James Anderson, a guard who has nailed 39.1% of his shots from downtown in sporadic time with San Antonio and Houston. The material outcome of this kind of dependence on Anderson will prove a learning curve for both player and coach, alike. Where Brown will not receive any production is from former lottery pick Royce White, previously of the Houston Rockets, whom the Sixers discarded this past week, having only traded for him in July. Philadelphia holds the dubious honour of being the second NBA team to give up on White, the individual who is yet to log any regular season minutes.

Brett Brown will head into Wednesday's opener at home to Miami hoping to complement his likely starters of Carter-Williams, Anderson, Turner, Young, and Hawes, with some form of bench concoction consisting of fourth year big Lavoy Allen, combo guard Tony Wroten, and relative NBA no-names Daniel Orton and Hollis Thompson. Philly will exhibit an ironically thin lineup for an organisation desperately pining for the enthusiasm of a city and a disenchanted fan base, emblazoning the team arena, merchandise and neighbourhoods with the ambiguous motto of 'Together We Build'. Cynicism aside, it will be interesting to the NBA junkie to observe how the faultlessly-honest Brown seeks to massage the veritable mess of a roster at his disposal, and just how low the squad will sink into the muddy waters of the perennial 'tanking' discussions.

Image courtesy of nba.com/sixers.

Don't despair, Sixer fans, together we build.