Moulding Klay: Scouting Thompson's Scoring

Golden State will need Thompson's production in the postseason.

The pairing of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in the Warriors’ backcourt is illustrative of trends within the NBA's contemporary climate.

Their outside-oriented attack has yielded results, with Stephen Curry setting a new single-season record for total three-pointers made in 2012-13 while, after defeating the Chicago Bulls on February 6, the Curry-Thompson duo set a new league record for the longest streak of games (30) for two teammates with at least one made three-pointer.

Clearly, it’s a palpable offensive strategy, indicative of the Warriors’ (and Mark Jackson’s, especially) blind faith in their guard tandem, and a major contributing factor to the Warriors placing in the top three in the league in both 3PM and three-point percentage.

Where else, however, has Klay Thompson been able to source his points from, and is the penchant for the perimeter a fundamentally fruitful approach for the team as a whole? Barring a noticeable decline in his free throw shooting, Thompson's basic per-game numbers appear as relative parallels of his first two seasons, which shouldn’t be interpreted as a negative. He continues to connect on his three-point launches at around 41% (a more-than-handy mark). Thompson’s trademark off-ball style, though, shines through in the available player tracking data.

Whilst his usage of Golden State's possessions (21.6%) is near identical to last season’s measure, a concerning pattern lies within the bed of offensive statistics. The 6-7 shooter’s 3PAr (percentage of field goal attempts that come from beyond the arc) has incrementally risen over each season of his young professional career, currently sitting at 44.4%. It may not seem too alarming for a player with such a lethal stroke to be inclined to hoist it from the outside, yet as a result of the growth of the Warriors roster and changes in personnel – including the addition of another ball-dominant guard in Andre Iguodala – it’s a level of complacency that’s proving to be costly.

Klay’s contentedness and developing “hoisting-and-hoping” scoring method is detrimental not only to his individual efficiency, but to the flow and productivity of Golden State’s offense.

Thompson is averaging 18.3 points per game (a career-best), thanks overwhelmingly due to a spike in minutes and attempts. He is also leading the league in "catch and shoot" points per game, generating 9.5 per contest. That is to say, more than half of his points scored in each game played come directly assisted from teammates, with no dribble action involved. It’s a nice, simplistic summary of Thompson’s tendencies. The catch and shoot production is voluminous and an aesthetically friendly wrinkle in his game, but can he really be considered “elite” in the category?

To provide context, the figure below groups the Warriors’ lanky guard with players who show a comparable favoritism toward the catch and shoot mentality.

Thompson’s point production is in the same ballpark as the likes of Korver and Nowitzki (renowned shooters in their own right). Nonetheless, his accuracy (at 43.4%) in this department is more relative to Andrea Bargnani (42.1%) and Channing Frye (42.7%) – two “floor spacing” frontliners notorious for their ill-advised shot selection – than any of the other above-listed players. Sure, it’s possible (and in this case likely) that Thompson is blessed with the perennial green light and license to let it fly from Mark Jackson and the coaching staff. Either way, the unabashed confidence isn’t working too well.

It’s not only in the realm of no-dribble flings that Thompson’s quietly slumping shooting touch has reared its ugly head, either. After a scorching hot beginning to the season in the month of November, where he boasted a net rating of +9.3 and a True Shooting percentage of 58.3%, his scoring has become wayward and inefficient. According to the NBA.com stats database, since December 1, the Warriors’ #11’s conversion has been languishing, with a TS% of 51.5%. In other words, that’s a two-plus month stretch in which Thompson’s scoring arrived at a rate below league-average (league average TS% is approximately 53.7%, according to HoopData).

Over the span of this season, roughly 44.4% of Thompson's total field goal attempts have stemmed from twenty-four feet and beyond. It’s not hard to decipher the inherent sources of the scoring struggles. Due to an enduring propensity to heave shots from downtown, it’s tragically basic – when the shots are falling, all is well offensively, and when they’re not, it is not.

In 2014, for the most part, said shots have not been dropping for the third-year man. How can this overly simplistic problem be arrested for the remainder of the season? Well, as it stands, Thompson is only getting to the free throw line an average of 2.2 times per 36 minutes, with a free throw attempt rate of 14.6%. Even though the rangy Californian is not typically regarded for his ability to orchestrate the offense and attack the rim off the dribble, a slight adjustment in mindset may be the instigator for a refreshed, more efficient offensive arsenal.

In 2013-14, the Bay Area shooter is found on the list of players (qualified for the 3PT leaderboard) who are attempting at least 6.0 three-point field goals per game, while managing fewer than 2.5 free throw attempts per 36 minutes.

It’s a class limited to just Thompson, Washington forward Trevor Ariza, Suns reserve wing Gerald Green, and Orlando Magic point guard Jameer Nelson; an undesirable situation. In the grand scheme of things, another outcome symptomatic of the shooting guard’s perimeter plight is the reality of Golden State’s overall offensive successes. Thompson’s developments (although not a sole cause) have added to the wider woes, and are one reason why the Warriors' offensive efficiency slipped to 16th in the month of January, at 105.5 points per 100 possessions (over 15 games). That’s a mark that is well below that of the laughable New York Knicks, who have a 20-32 record on the season, out of the lowly Atlantic Division.

The patterns threaded throughout Klay Thompson’s season, coupled with Andre Iguodala’s evaporating scoring and the stunted growth of Harrison Barnes’ game, have created a bevy of problems on the Warriors’ wings.

Golden State’s cast of capable shooters can cause any number of strategic issues for opponents. For this to be maximized and the team to excel beyond expectations, however, important offensive adjustments must be made. 

On the Warriors, winning streaks, and the Western Conference, with J.M. Poulard of Warriors World

Andre Iguodala, Golden State's "Swiss army knife".

What a difference a healthy, balanced roster makes. It's remarkable how a well-built team can perform with the luxury of a "Full Squad." Take the Golden State Warriors, for example, who narrowly missed a piece of NBA history with their 6-1 road trip -- blossoming with the help of steady involvements from Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bogut. 

Having watched a number of games from the lengthy winning streak, and penned my love for Andrew Bogut and the Dubs' defense here, I was after a slightly more expert opinion. I sent some questions and thoughts to J.M. Poulard, editor of ESPN's True Hoop Network Warriors World blog, and here's what he had to say in response:

Angus Crawford: The Warriors are fourth in the league for defensive efficiency, only conceding an average of 98.5 points per 100 possessions. That’s an improvement of roughly four points on last year’s mark. What would you attribute this elite defensive play to?

J.M. Poulard: I hate to answer with an oversimplification, but it will have to do: the combination of Andre Iguodala and a healthy Andrew Bogut. Last season, the Golden State Warriors did not have a great perimeter stopper (Draymond Green was great in spurts) and also, Bogut was injured for parts of the season. When the Aussie eventually got back on the floor, he was often rusty and out of position. He only truly regained his form late in the 2012-13 season.

This time around though, Bogut has been a game changer defensively all year and Iguodala’s defensive brilliance has certainly helped in terms of limiting the production of some of the league’s top wings.

AC: With Andre Iguodala in the lineup, this team is 20-7 (.741 win percentage). Iguodala is shooting career-best marks of 58.9% on two-point field goals, and 47.1% from beyond the arc. How important has the addition of the veteran swingman been to Golden State’s offense?

JMP: Forget important, Andre Iguodala is an essential cog in the Warriors’ offense. His ball-handling and passing allow players such as Klay Thompson to simply concentrate on catching and shooting as opposed to being tasked with creating shots for others. He allows the team’s main scorers to get into position and simply wait for the ball to come their way. Even Stephen Curry benefits from this given his adoration for running players off screens for spot-up attempts. Iguodala allows Curry’s role to shift during the course of games, which creates advantageous matchups for the Dubs.

AC: There’s been a growing sentiment that the Warriors have missed the play of Jarrett Jack in his role as reserve point guard and secondary ball handler. Toney Douglas has battled injury and struggled in that role (6.7 PER), Mark Jackson has largely utilised Iguodala as the team’s faux-backup PG, and the Warriors have been linked to both Kirk Hinrich and Andre Miller as potential trade targets. Is this something that needs to be addressed, or can the team function with Iguodala and Toney Douglas in limited minutes?

JMP: The need must absolutely be addressed because the team is sorely lacking in backup point guard play. Andre Iguodala does a more than adequate job of spelling Stephen Curry, however, in the event injuries occur, the Warriors will struggle once more. Golden State absolutely needs Curry and Iguodala to suit up in every game in order to have a chance at running what looks like a functional offense for 48 minutes. Take one out of the equation and the team looks somewhat average more than anything from an offensive standpoint.

AC: The team’s 10 game winning streak ended in Brooklyn on January 8, leaving them one win away from completing an historic, unprecedented 7-0 road trip. Meanwhile, stellar play, a healthy lineup, and David Lee’s postgame comments sparked the #FullSquad movement for the Warriors and their fan base. What about the winning streak impressed you most?

JMP: To be perfectly honest, nothing. It’s as if the team’s parts finally came together to display just what the Warriors look like when the players are in tune with each other. People often get caught up in potential as opposed to production, and the 10-game winning streak highlighted exactly what the team looks like when its players are in concert with each other and rely on their collective strengths.

AC: Chris Paul (separated shoulder) and Eric Bledsoe (meniscus) were both recently announced to be expecting lengthy stints on the sidelines, putting a dint in the hopes of the Warriors’ Pacific Division rivals. Is it realistic to look for Golden State to take a hold of the division lead and, if so, how significant will a top-four seed and home court advantage be in the postseason?

JMP: Unless the Warriors face health concerns once more this season, I fully expect the team to take over the Pacific and win it. I have always contended that Golden State would play the Houston Rockets in the first round and probably lose to them. However, if the Dubs win the division, that likely gives them home court advantage and probably pits them against the Los Angeles Clippers in what is becoming an exciting feud. All things being equal, the Clips would likely be favored to win the matchup because the best player in the series usually leads his team to victory. 

However, Stephen Curry has narrowed the gap between he and Chris Paul faster than I anticipated and consequently, I would be inclined to pick the Warriors.

You can follow J.M. on Twitter @ShyneIV, keep up with the Warriors World blog @warriorsworld, and follow Jordan Ramirez of WW @JRAM_91. Also, Dubs fans can pick up a #FullSquad t-shirt here. 

What's new on the uniform front for 2013-14

The Pelicans' road gear

Here are thoughts on some of the new NBA uniforms that’ll be worn in 2013-14.

New Orleans Pelicans, home and away

The colour scheme is uninspiring. It's conservative but looks like it’ll age quickly.

The font used for the lettering is likeable, but that’s almost irrelevant given the lettering is too small. It seems odd that ‘Pelicans’ wasn’t used for either the home or road jersey script. Not only is that a new nickname, but it uses less space than ‘New Orleans’ and thus would’ve been a nicer fit for the jersey.

The side panels, clean armholes and V-neck all hinder this set.

The logo – which is so busy it takes a second to spot the pelican – marks a missed opportunity. The Pelicans nickname provided New Orleans a chance to use a happy, cartoon bird logo, like the Baltimore Orioles. That would’ve been a nice change for an NBA team.

Phoenix Suns, home, away and alternate

The use of black really hurts this set. The home uniform is the biggest offender on this front with a black collar and black numbers, when purple would’ve been a more eye-pleasing choice.

The coloured flaps on the neckline and the piping near the armholes and across the back of the shorts are clutter. That design on the hem of the shorts belongs on a misguided teen’s lower back, not this uniform.

The script, numbering and font for the player names are all attractive. There’s something flimsy-looking about that streaks design, but it works.

Some sort of diagonal pattern on the shorts – similar to what they did in the ‘90s – would’ve been a nice touch.

Detroit Pistons, alternate

This looks like something a Saturday junior club with a big uniform budget would wear. It’s unnecessary and generically modern, particularly those side panels.



The new alternate for the Warriors

Golden State Warriors, alternate

Having a sleeved jersey seems particularly unnecessary when you leave the sleeves plain. Some stripes – and the Warriors already have stripes elsewhere on their unis – would’ve looked good on there.

Los Angeles Clippers, alternate

The light blue is attractive and relevant to the club’s past. This uniform could do with a more standard collar and without the piping up the side, however.

Los Angeles Lakers, alternate

They took an unattractive uniform and made it worse with black. That shade doesn’t team well with purple and gold, plus this gear retains the unsightly side panels of the other Lakers unis.

Miami Heat, two alternates

Both are unnecessary. The red one looks terrible, the black one looks good. The scoop collar, trim, and drop shadow on the numbers are all plusses for the black uniform. Hopefully the ‘A’ isn’t actually solid, as it appears in that photo.

New York Knicks, alternate

Its biggest crime is being unneeded, particularly as the Knicks have one of the finest uniform sets in the league without it. This alternate has all the features that make their regulars so appealing, though.