Showing posts with label DANNY GREEN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DANNY GREEN. Show all posts

Tuesday, 10 December 2013

Improved perimeter play has sparked the Spurs' solid D

Spurs guard Tony Parker checking Golden State wingman Harrison Barnes.
If you don't know, now you know: the Spurs sit 2nd in the league's Defensive Rating rankings. San Antonio trails only it's Saturday opponents -- the Indiana Pacers -- for it's ball-stopping prowess.

With Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter manning the paint, it's almost expected that the team should boast a defensive unit good enough for a top ten standing. The notion that a Duncan-Splitter combo will strangle the interior slashes of the opponent is not a new one. In sixty games of sharing the floor in 2012-13, the pair (when measured as a two-man lineup) restricted opposing FG% to 41.4%, and generated a handsome Defensive Rating of 92.7. An unquestionably elite performance. Given the tall timber's penchant for roaming in the restricted area, then, what is required to propel the team as a whole to the next echelon of defensive dominance?

It starts with a collective commitment from the rest of the roster. A little tinkering to the rotation and a couple of new faces don't hurt, either. Last season, San Antonio were proud owners of a number of key defensive indicators that the majority of NBA teams would kill to achieve. Whether it was keeping Opp. FG% to 42.9% in their 58 wins, placing third in the Association for defensive rebound percentage at 74.9% (behind only Golden State and Houston), or fourth for opposition True Shooting %'s at a paltry 51.6% (courtesy of HoopData.com). Recently, "Pounding The Rock" paid homage to the Spurs' propensity to defy and withstand the hallmarks of opposing offenses, and detailed the growing reputation of Danny Green as a "3-and-D" wingman. But what about Tony Parker -- far from being regarded as a defensive menace -- and the removal of 22 minutes of Gary Neal from the nightly lineup?*

Sure, offseason manoeuvring and substituting the likes of Marco Belinelli and Jeff Ayres in to replace Neal and DeJuan Blair may seem minor and inconsequential to the casual onlooker. Not quite. It is actually difficult to adequately describe just how much of a defensive albatross Gary Neal was for San Antonio, in 2013 especially. Neal was one of the team's chief defensive liabilities, mustering an individual Defensive Rating of 101.4 over his 68 regular season appearances. Spurs fans will remember Neal's rise from obscurity and his role as a streaky shooter (with a clutch performance or two along the way). Don't let that distract you from his identity as the definition of a one-way player, though. Look, Belinelli himself is not exactly a brick wall on the defensive end. Nonetheless, it's worth looking at how the team has fared when the Italian gunslinger has been plugged in alongside rotation bigs. For example, through seventeen games together, the Splitter-Belinelli tandem has earned a Defensive Rating of 81.5. We're crippled by the reality of a small sample size here, but this mark is currently the Spurs' best of any combo that has logged greater than 100 minutes together on the season. It's a figure that's overwhelmingly weighted by the stature of Splitter and is certain to balloon back out toward a more reflective and sustainable number. Belinelli, however, has (thus far) given honest, near league-average D and has avoided the sieve-like play that proved costly for the team with Neal on the floor.

Stepping away from the team's bench help for a second, if we know that three of the Spurs' five starters can more than hold their own when called upon on D, where do Parker and Danny Green stand as a backcourt playing heavy minutes? According to basketball-reference.com, Tony Parker managed 2.3 Defensive Win Shares (defined as "an estimated number of wins contributed by a player due to his defense") in 2012-13, roughly middle of the pack on the San Antonio roster. So far this season, the Parker-Green unit has been a stingy one, helping to hold the opposition to 40.4% on field goal attempts, while Tony Parker ranks 11th in the league for individual defensive efficiency (of players who have played a minimum of 10 games, and average at least 20 minutes per outing). Even if a lot of these glittery numbers snap back to reality -- in one way or another -- the progress of Parker on the other side of the ball deserves recognition. It's the one component of his game that has always been the critic's choice: accountability and consistency on D. As much as anything, this is a Point Guard-driven league, and Tony has amassed these numbers having already battled Ty Lawson, John Wall, Russell Westbrook, and Kyrie Irving, to name a few. Meanwhile Green, who is frustratingly prone to the occasional defensive lapse or gamble, still comes in at fourth in the NBA's individual defensive rankings.

Key factors help to comprise these measures: the quality of opponents, the makeup of the Spurs' units on the floor, injuries, personnel etc. Yet, we're nearly a quarter of the way through the 82-game grind. There is enough available evidence to support the incremental improvement of Parker's defensive efforts. He has boosted his own Defensive Rating from 97.6 this past year to 92.2 through seventeen early-season bouts. Expect Parker's individual stats to gravitate and regress closer towards those of last season, but if he can continue his recent output on the perimeter, he -- and San Antonio as a team -- will be richly rewarded for his sustained advances.

* Neal also registered an average of nearly nineteen minutes per contest in the postseason for the Spurs in 2012-13.

Statistics used are from NBA.com/stats, unless otherwise specified.

Tuesday, 26 November 2013

The San Antonio Spurs and the Art of Subtle Stability

Image courtesy of Nathaniel E. Butler/NBAE/Getty Images.
The Spurs are 13-1, leading the Western Conference, riding an eye-popping, pace-setting 11 game winning streak, and yet, this is not news. Fourteen games into the regular season marathon, the silver and black hold a 93% winning ratio. Whilst some have sought to assess and scrutinise the legitimacy of the Trail Blazers' wildly hot stretch (and rightfully so), San Antonio continues it's excellence of execution in this, Tim Duncan's 17th season, stereotypically unnoticed and absent from public fandom and consciousness. Duncan, participant in a total of 1192 regular season bouts and 211 postseason showings, has featured in twelve of the team's 14 games thus far, and remains the centrepiece of the ever-reliable San Antonio locomotive. "The Big Fundamental" logged a cumbersome 2,813 minutes across standard and playoff contests last year, and is certain to have his court time intricately managed and carefully placed, yet again. It is almost as if basketball enthusiasts have become so blissfully accustomed to the recurring success of the franchise from the Southwest of Texas that it casually seeps through the everyday clutter of talking heads, and acquiesces to a status of lesser importance.

This season, it seems, has been no different. The insignia of the team's offensive output has, in a more recent context, proven to be remarkable spacing, copious amounts of shooters, and the usage of Tony Parker's penchant for slashing as the instigator for fluid, intelligent passing. It's early, to be sure, but the Spurs currently rank 4th in the league for assists per game, and 61.7% of the team's converted field goals directly result from teammate setups. Historically, San Antonio have found a way to implement solid, accomplished, bit-part, veteran contributors into their polished schemes, whether it be Robert Horry, Brent Barry, Glenn Robinson, Michael Finley, Fabricio Oberto, Boris Diaw, Stephen Jackson, Matt Bonner, or any other member of the Spurs' assorted casts who honed in on a regular role. Perhaps the 2013-14 version of this concept will be Italian guard Marco Belinelli, formerly of the Chicago Bulls. Of course, these names arrived in San Antonio with differing resumes and achieved varying levels of success once competing in a Spurs uniform, nevertheless, there is enough of a track record to trust in the managerial ingenuity of this front office. These complimentary pieces have allowed Popovich's men to take advantage of the roster's balance and flexibility, and experiment with new structures on both sides of the ball. 

The Spurs stand at 7-0 on their home floor, with a hearty net-rating of +15.0, and a handy pace of 96.92 possessions per 48 minutes, according to NBA.com statistics. These healthy numbers are reflective of the regenerated offense that vaulted the team to a 61-win, #1 seed season in 2010-11, followed by a Conference Finals placing in the 2012 season, and earned them an NBA Finals berth this past June. This season, San Antonio have registered a number of double-digit victories, including a pummelling of a Cleveland outfit in utter disarray just three days ago, and a 31pt romp of New York at Madison Square Garden. The win over the Cavaliers, according to Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld.com, is the 37th time that the team has amassed that margin of victory (min. 30pts) in the Tim Duncan era. Kennedy noted that this is equivalent to eight more of those wins than any other NBA franchise in that window. It is comprehensive routs of this nature that create the luxury of resting key, ageing players for the Spurs, the significance of which simply cannot be overstated. 

Distinct from the offensive prowess of Duncan's squad, the tangible defensive presence of Tiago Splitter, forever lurking in the paint, is not to be dismissed. Analysis of San Antonio's two-man lineup figures highlight that Splitter, in almost any pairing (even with reserve guard Patty Mills), is able to heavily deteriorate the conversation rate of opposition scoring attempts. Measured on a per 100 possessions basis, Splitter (thus far), when paired with any of Mills, Manu Ginobili, Marco Belinelli, Boris Diaw, Kawhi Leonard, or Tony Parker, assists in restricting the opponent's field goal percentage below a meagre 41%. Splitter's role as a stalwart in the post is a primary factor behind the limiting of Tim Duncan's minutes to a career-low 27.3 per game. The sturdiness contributed by Splitter, in congruence with the creativity and unconventional play of bench bigs Boris Diaw and Matt Bonner, gift the Spurs the chance to rest their 37 year old future Hall-of-Famer extensively, and rely on guard-heavy units that look to compensate for the loss of Duncan's multifaceted offensive production. Behind all of this, clearly, is a conscientious strategy to pick spots on the floor, utilise the corner three as a predominant weapon, and maximise the value of good, well-balanced shot selection.
San Antonio's shot distribution chart through fourteen regular season games.
The above diagram illustrates the offensive decision-making of the Spurs to date, amplifying explicit points of emphasis. The shades of blue (ascending from below to above league average) portray how the team fares when compared to the remaining 29 squads, with the left baseline/block semi-circular region and three-fifths of the available three-point territories obviously favoured. Conversely, they appear to hold a deliberate aversion to the top-of-the-key region, hesitating to launch "long twos", widely acknowledged as some of the (statistically) least efficient spots to fire from. It is not difficult to fathom how this team has developed into an unequivocal offensive juggernaut, artfully whisking together heady play with above-average shooting capabilities. As a collective, San Antonio is nailing an average of eight threes per game, at a scary rate of 40.5%, in addition to owning quality percentages both at the line, and from the field. Tony Parker, perennially an undersized problem-maker in the paint for opposition teams, is leading the league in field goal percentage on drives (of players averaging at least 30mpg), netting an absurd 67.9% of his driving tries, per SportsVU player tracking data. Moreover, three of the Spurs' regular backcourt rotation (Parker, Danny Green, and Patty Mills) feature in the top ten in the NBA in average speed traveled (measured in miles per hour), ranging between 4.6 and 4.8mph, helping the team to counterbalance the low-post play of Duncan with a host of speedy, tempo-pushing guards. This is an offense unparalleled in its diversity and complexity, regularly punishing subpar opposing defenses and assaulting the basket from an assemblage of angles.

With this, and the spectacular defensive impact of the Splitter-Duncan combination (Splitter stifles the interior, limiting opposition FG% at the rim to 32.8% - good for league-leading status of those playing 20+ minutes and regularly contesting shots), San Antonio is set. In an odd way, having considered all of the above, it is unsurprising that the win-loss ratio is 13-1 to this point - indirectly feeding into the absence of popular attention. The ideal, perfectly scripted scenario would be a top two seed in the West, with a healthy core entering the postseason. Evidently, it is health - and not consistency of performance - that will persist as the overwhelming concern. To the basketball junkie, it is tough not to appreciate the unique beauty and unmatched dependability of the San Antonio Spurs.