Food for Thought on the NBA's 'Tanking' Debate

Embarking on a season where a handful of teams look hopelessly destined (and content to be so) for the lottery, with zero postseason aspirations, there has been some noteworthy, timely discussion on the subject of 'tanking', being satisfied with losing games, and the now-commonplace method of building through the draft. ESPN's Chad Ford (via ESPN Insider) recently assessed the extent to which he believes teams qualify for the tanking label, throwing the Phoenix Suns and the Philadelphia 76ers atop his "rankings". Ford asserted that the NBA is littered with franchises who "want to lose a lot", based on the knowledge that "NBA GMs are calling the next draft the best in a decade". The chief lottery prizes are anticipated to be Canadian Andrew Wiggins and fellow freshman Kentucky's Julius Randle. League executives may value the talent of this upcoming draft at historic, near unprecedented levels, but with the team who holds the honour of the NBA's worst regular season record only assured of a 25% chance of the #1 overall pick, and so much more (player development, team culture, health, roster balance, coaching etc.) at stake in the game of drafting franchise-altering talent, is the tanking strategy truly worthwhile?

Forward-thinking, forthright Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban expressed his opinion on the matter of team-building, and just how the Mavs have approached the issue under his guidance. Cuban addressed the idea of allowing your team to "lose a lot of games so you have a chance to pick the next Kevin Durant, John Wall or Kyrie Irving or Blake Griffin et al", while reminding his audience that the formula cannot be that simple - there remains the inherent need for the players to develop, and for them to be appropriately surrounded by a supporting cast capable of contending for a championship. Interestingly, the Mavericks' owner also raised the prospect of many teams following a model, or a set strategy, and that, on the flip side, "it creates opportunities for those who have followed a different path". Cuban's views are, as usual, candid and worth considering, and raise further questions about the finality, certainty, or lack thereof, within the NBA's contemporary managerial manifesto.

A recent example of executive decision-making that remains relevant to this discussion is the Orlando Magic's decision to trade Dwight Howard prior to his contract expiring, and the talent level that the franchise received in return. Orlando flatly rejected the chance at receiving either of former All-Stars Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bynum, raising suspicions that Magic GM Rob Hennigan intentionally received an underwhelming (short-term) offer with the hope of improving the team's draft position. In the wake of the transaction, the Magic were widely projected to be the 'losers' of the trade, headed for a certain regression in the win column. A collection of All-Stars switched jerseys and Orlando held the desired commodity and centrepiece of the discussions, yet the organisation's returns consisted primarily of inexperienced young players, rookie, and future assets. All three major pieces of the deal (not arriving in Orlando) - Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, and Andre Iguodala - have since departed their trade destinations, significantly altering any forecasts associated to the original agreement. Orlando finished 2012-13 with a league-worst record of 20-62, subsequently earning the 2nd overall selection in the draft and taking Indiana guard Victor Oladipo with the pick.

Dave Berri of Freakanomics.com analysed the historical outcomes of repeated losing seasons and high draft placements, setting the bar for basketball ineptitude at 25 wins or fewer. Berri reviewed the win totals of those teams in the years after their subpar seasons, revealing that "nearly 90 percent of teams that win 25 games or fewer are not contenders five years later". The piece discusses the trend of teams attempting to avoid the "mediocrity treadmill", while debunking myths that the NBA's draft lottery is starting place on the championship map, and concluding that "losing is not a winning strategy in the NBA". Berri's discussion also raised the prospect of teams lodged in the window of 34 to 49 wins in any given season (labelled "mediocre" for the purposes of his piece) are better placed than those who are wholeheartedly embracing the race to the bottom.

Another, different perspective on the subject emerged courtesy of Charlotte Bobcats owner Michael Jordan, who also refuted the idea of tanking, and insisted that his franchise would not be taking that route. Jordan clarified his thoughts on the tanking model, declaring, "If that was my intention I never would have paid Al Jefferson $13 million a year." The Bobcats, lost in the abyss of NBA irrelevance and holders of a 62-168 win-loss ratio in Jordan's three seasons as owner, are desperate to shed the label of being perennially incompetent, and would seemingly welcome a season in the range of 34 to 49 wins, to use Berri's scale.

With so much speculation and anticipation hovering over the 2014 NBA Draft and the potential prospects, this season is bound to prove an exhibition in team management, and team building strategy.

Knicks Night - Preseason Edition: MSG is transformed, but are the New York Knicks?

As is the nature of the NBA's exhibition schedule, the Knicks returned home to New York for the first time to conclude their involvement in preseason silliness. Much has been written and publicised about Madison Square Garden's $1 billion transformation, and the closing game of the preseason - with New York hosting the Charlotte Bobcats - stood as the Knickerbockers' first opportunity to showcase their reformed lineup before the home crowd. Despite fluctuations to the rotation, Mike Woodson stuck with Iman Shumpert in the backcourt, with his top-heavy frontline trio now firmly entrenched as starting staples, while in a contrast, Charlotte put forth an opening five short of household names, predominantly due to pricy offseason acquisition Al Jefferson's persistent ankle troubles. The Knicks also entered the contest having (likely) finalised their 15-man opening night roster, with sporadic preseason participants Ike Diogu, Josh Powell, Chris Douglas-Roberts, and the partially-guaranteed deals of Jeremy Tyler and CJ Leslie being the casualties of cutting season.

Thus far, New York's exhibition outings had produced mixed results, but have nonetheless afforded a chance for lineup experimentation and a window of time to judge those surviving on basic training camp agreements. Of great importance to the Knicks (unusual to say in a preseason context) was the fact that Amar'e Stoudemire and J.R. Smith, who is confronting a 5-game suspension for testing positive to marijuana, were able to hit the hardwood for the first time and log necessary minutes. Kenyon Martin also made a brief appearance, totalling eight minutes.

Good spacing, ball movement and steady defense were the themes of the opening 24 minutes for the Knicks, although controversial offseason addition Andrea Bargnani struggled to shake his shooting slump, and could not find his range from beyond the arc. Even with Bismack Biyombo's bizarre ability to appear to be in all places at all times and his registering of 20 total rebounds, the reliably pesky paws of Pablo Prigioni led the second unit, and with quick hands of Metta World Peace, allowed the home team to get out on the break and capitalise in transition.

Bobcats journeyman Josh McRoberts, a seemingly unlikely candidate, showed a sweet shooting stroke and canned three from the outside, yet this could not disguise Charlotte's concession of 7 of 11 deep balls on the opposing end. Stability on both ends allowed the Knicks to carry a 55-42 advantage to half time. Given the relative insignificance of the outcome, Carmelo Anthony could not have expected to have been on the floor in the final minutes, but this resulted after the two teams became submerged in a porous display of offense, steadily exchanging bricks with no regard for the viewing audience or Madison Square Garden crowd. Charlotte failed to add to their first half total until the 6:07 mark of the third, as the two teams inexplicably combined for 21 consecutive offline field goal attempts. If such a thing is a possible with October basketball, the third quarter play (or lack thereof) of Mike Woodson's men drew the frustration of an otherwise-buzzing crowd, as the Bobcats' drought-breaking basket instigated a 15-2 spurt, and sliced the Knicks handy lead. Ironically, New York closed the quarter on a stereotypically insane halfcourt heave that was splashed in by none other than J.R. Smith.

The Bobcats remained active on the defensive end in the 4th quarter, with swingman Jeffery Taylor finding a feast of fast break options. This, among other things, was just one of the reasons why the confusion and exasperation of those observing did not subside. It was a case of continued offensive apathy and ineptitude for the home squad, exposing a number of flaws and areas that need to be addressed, not least a 37% field goal percentage. Carmelo Anthony could not hit his tightly contested 16 foot, fading jumpshot to (not to the chagrin of those in attendance) send the game to overtime, thanks primarily to the close checking of Jeffery Taylor. Anthony finished with 13pts and 7 rebounds on a measily 4-17 FG shooting, narrowly 'besting' his Italian stallion companion, Bargnani, who converted just 2 of his 10 tries. Preseason contest notwithstanding, the Bobcats depart Manhattan with an admirable 85-83 victory, a completed 5-3 record in the preseason, and a key cog still to return, while the Knicks (with the roster now set) will hope that their search for answers ends in June, rather than October.

Stoudemire's play was encouraging and efficient, and *if* injuries can be avoided (or at least minimised), he will remain a relevant NBA player and a contributor to this team. The team itself, however, enters the season overshadowed by injuries, a noteworthy suspension, and a myriad of doubts about its ability to put an above-average defense out on the floor. The acquisition of Bargnani is destined for season-long scrutiny, and is an irrefutable factor in the Knicks' quest to defy ESPN's SCHOENE simulator's forecast of a 37-45 regular season record.

FINAL - New York 83-85 Charlotte