In the Garden of Uncertainty

Fading away: Just like the hightop, gone is the Knicks brass' confidence in Iman Shumpert.

How much can one honestly say about the reeling, bizarre New York Knicks organisation? The traveling sideshow that is the Knicks took yet another wild spin into trademark insanity Wednesday, with the news that J.R. Smith will start in place of Pablo Prigioni in Atlanta, the swirling rumours of Mike Woodson and the front office's dissatisfaction with Iman Shumpert, and subsequent trade whispers. Firstly, Smith. The cartoon-esque saga that has been his last six months - whether it was his playoff meltdown and elbow to Jason Terry, his odd contract negotiations that changed in length and dollars (significantly), his not-so-subtly masked offseason knee surgery, his five game suspension for a violation of the league's anti-drugs policy, the unbalanced addition of his sibling (Chris Smith) to the roster, or his awful return game which saw him net 5pts on 1-9 shooting in a 31pt home loss - rolled on uninterrupted again today, as he steps in to start just his second game in 117 showings for the Knicks. Smith, ever the controversial figure, seemingly has the support of Mike Woodson, and will confirm what had apparently been brewing in the summer months by starting tonight's road game against the Hawks. Shumpert retains his position, for now, as it is the efficient Pablo Prigioni - who, by contrast, does not have the enduring adoration of Woodson - set to step aside. Of course, never mind the fact that across eight games in April of last season the Felton-Prigioni-Shumpert-Anthony four man unit managed a net rating of 18.8 and a true shooting percentage of 63.8%. Moreover, since being inserted as a regular starter on March 18, Prigioni assisted the Knicks on a 16-1 stretch over the month of March and April, including 13 straight victories. The decision to tinker the lineup prior to Wednesday's matchup represents the fourth experimented starting unit in only eight total games. In other words (even with Tyson Chandler's untimely injury), the word 'stability' has not been synonymous with the 2013-14 Knickerbockers thus far.

Timing and justification notwithstanding, J.R. Smith will seek to recapture the level of play that earned him the honour of being the NBA's premier bench performer, as the 2012-13 Sixth Man of the Year. In his 'contract year', Smith registered 18.1 points per contest whilst connecting twice from downtown per game, frequently amassing starter-quantity minutes (33.5mpg). His 5.5 long range hoists per game, however, were second only to league-leading scorer Carmelo Anthony, who attempted six per outing. After a smoking opening to his team's first round series, Smith crumbled in the wake of his league-imposed suspension, only managing 33.1% field goal shooting and 16.1 points per 36mins. Clearly, the majority of Smith's NBA successes have surfaced in a role where he is asked to deliver sharp, immediate offensive spark and can be withdrawn with little consequence, rather than as a proverbial second banana. The reliability of J.R. Smith as a #2 offensive option remains in serious doubt, and if that is underlining the thinking of his placement in the starting five, then the Knicks' officials may be startled by the outcomes. Apparently, the re-emergence of Smith from injury and suspension, the drafting of the walking trebuchet Tim Hardaway Jr. in the first round, and the inking of wily guard Beno Udrih to complement the roster's guard depth have deemed perimeter defender and chief young asset Iman Shumpert expendable. 

Frank Isola of the NY Daily News reports that New York have put the feelers out and tested the waters in relation to Iman Shumpert's trade currency, engaging in preliminary discussions with Denver. The news is not altogether surprising, yet it stands as indicative of the organisation's hasty, remarkably shortsighted strategising. As a result of age, contractual status/salary cap hit, injury, and team roles, Shumpert is undoubtedly the sole asset of any substantial worth in the trade market that the Knicks can lay claim to. Isola notes that the front office, absorbing the blows of Chandler's extended absence, is attempting to conjure a solution to its barren front court situation. Shumpert, attached to a rookie-scale deal, comes at the very modest price of $1.7M for this season and $2.7M next, only serving to heighten his value in trade conversations. If the reports are even vaguely true, and New York is gauging the possibilities of a Shumpert-big man exchange - Isola mentions Denver's Kenneth Faried as a candidate - one ominous truth appears to be eluding the team's officials. In (hypothetically) disposing of Iman Shumpert, the Knicks will have a grand total of zero quality, NBA-capable wing defenders under the age of 34, leaving an already-dire defensive circumstance to be hammered by a weakened, shallow rotation. The unquestionably positive defensive influence of the third-year man was made clear for all to witness and appreciate in the 2013 Playoffs, with his on/off-court differentials a reminder of this. In twelve postseason matchups, the Knicks' net rating with Shumpert on the floor was 7.6, while when he headed to the bench, it was a mere -3.3. Realisitcally, New York will have great difficulty discovering that level of defensive efficiency in any bigs available in Shumpert-centred discussions, nor will they be able to plug in above-average, short-term replacements from the free agent pool in the aftermath of any possible trade. 

Amidst all of this chaos and disorganisation, one thing becomes clearer as each game passes - the Knicks are tightly lodged with a small-ball, floor-spacing, undersized roster, sewn to a coach who is, fundamentally, an advocate of slow-it-down, front court focused, post up play. Woodson, in the face of all forms of cheery outcomes for his 'Prigionian' (new word) lineups, will do anything to escape the unwanted condition of a guard-heavy roster, almost to the point of sheer stubbornness. Having said that, with Chandler sidelined, the Knicks' coach is inherently handicapped and will be left to continue to start Andrea Bargnani - owner of an underwhelming -16.6 on/off-court differential - at centre. 

The storylines of Smith, Shumpert, and Woodson himself, are not likely to dissipate any time soon. Frank Isola of the Daily News seems determined with his take that Shumpert will be discarded via trade, sooner or later, and if Chandler's stint in a suit and knee brace is extended in the slightest, expect the Knicks to reshuffle their collection of bigs. 

November Pain: Where to now for the languishing New York Knicks?

New York centre Tyson Chandler wincing after his collision injury.

Sitting uncomfortably at 1-3, with recent home losses to Minnesota and Charlotte, there is increasing reason for cautious concern about the trajectory of the 2013-14 season for the New York Knicks. The team's play has been well below par, exhibiting an unsettled rotation, an untidy offense, and an incredibly shabby defensive scheme. With Carmelo Anthony labouring to discover his offensive arsenal, currently shooting 37.1% from the field, and the supporting cast failing to manage anything even vaguely resembling transition defense, the Knicks have hopelessly dwindled to the despondence of a below-average start to the season. Harshly, the issues that have plagued New York's November performances were intensified on Wednesday morning, with reports that the team's defensive anchor, and best performer so far, Tyson Chandler, will be out for approximately 4-6 weeks. As mentioned in Wednesday's recap of the Knicks' home loss to Charlotte, Chandler collided with guard Kemba Walker, was helped off the floor and did not return at any stage of the game. Together with Iman Shumpert and Metta World Peace, Chandler has been one of very few Knickerbockers thus far to display honest consistency in his level of play.

Undoubtedly, this news is a crippling blow to a franchise already dealing with an untimely front office reshuffle, the ongoing suspension of guard J.R. Smith, the fading health and contributions of Amar'e Stoudemire (the $45M man), and the aforementioned losing start. Chandler essentially rescued the team in the lone victory (over Milwaukee) of the '13-14 campaign, as they almost disposed of a 25pt advantage, and has truly been the rock of an otherwise jittery, drama-ridden situation. Moreover, head coach Mike Woodson has battled to find a blend with the roster, not able to smoothly integrate new pieces Andrea Bargnani, Beno Udrih, and Tim Hardway Jr. with the desired effectiveness. It is extremely early in the NBA regular season marathon, to be sure, yet the numbers do not look favourably upon New York. Small sample size aside, the team presently sits in the bottom five in the league for points, rebounds, and assists per game, while the per minute breakdowns of defensive efficiency and player's on/off court differentials can make for scary reading. Recently, Woodson has steadfastly stuck with his 'big' lineup (featuring an Anthony-Bargnani-Chandler frontline), despite the questionable outcomes and murky ball-stopping efforts that have resulted. According to NBA.com stats (measuring per 48mins), when Andrea Bargnani is on the floor, the Knicks hold a +/- of -21.8, and when he heads to the bench, the team fares at +13.3. This is a negative discrepancy not even remotely matched by any of the Italian's teammates, and - to say the least - does not auger well for Woodson's suggestion that he will adjust to Chandler's extended absence by shifting Bargnani to the five spot.

Woodson, ever the opponent of 'small ball' philosophy, figures to (primarily due to pure depth issues, more than anything else) escalate Beno Udrih's role in the rotation by slotting him in undersized, three-guard lineups. Udrih, the crafty veteran point guard who joined the Knicks in the summer, has only played sporadic, mostly garbage time minutes to this point. Nevertheless, inserting Udrih and adding more creativity to the lineups will not be able to distract from Woodson's #1 issue - a paper-thin front court depth chart. Despite revealing a 'platoon' style rotation plan for the team's backup big men prior to the season, with the intention of alternating games for Kenyon Martin and Amar'e Stoudemire (both of whom are under minute limits), Tyson Chandler's injury and the genuine lack of options have dictated that Woodson throw that idea out the window, at least in the intermediate. Stoudemire, who looked sluggish at best on Tuesday, at this point of his drifting career is a walking injury risk and question mark, whilst Martin (who was averaging 24mpg toward the tail end of last season) has also been heavily hampered by an ailing body. Beyond the sidelined Chandler, the unreliable Bargnani, and the plight of the injury saddled duo, the roster outlook for New York's contracted big men is very, very grim. The Knicks wrapped up their training camp by cutting journeymen bigs Ike Diogu and Josh Powell, discarding the guaranteed contract of (recovering from injury) Jeremy Tyler and, in a shameless display of nepotism, elected to retain guard Chris Smith, who is conveniently related to offseason re-signing J.R. Smith. Only the Knicks could immerse themselves in such a ludicrous, absurd sequence of managerial decisions; it is a pattern that has been synonymous with the franchise for a decade. Indicative of the team's circus-like, scattergun, irrational, reactionary decision-making were reports that the man at the helm, owner James Dolan, boiled over to the extent that he wishes to banish the cheerleading ensemble (Knicks City Dancers) altogether.

Barring a surprise trade with the scarce available assets, or an impending stopgap signing to sure up the situation, New York will move forward with what it has - Bargnani, Martin, and Stoudemire - and almost certainly welcome former lottery pick Cole Aldrich, inactive until this point, into the rotation. Since being selected 11th overall in 2009 and traded immediately to Oklahoma City, Aldrich has bounced around the Association, ultimately unable to nestle into a permanent NBA home. To say it would be remiss to expect Aldrich's inclusion to resolve any of the problems created by Chandler's injury would be a gross understatement. As currently constructed, New York are assuring themselves of persisting difficulties on defense (particularly in terms of the low-post and without Chandler's hallmark weak side help), and in the rebounding department. Harvey Araton, of the New York Times, very recently raised the theoretical solution of signing veteran centre Jason Collins to provide some aid to the Knicks' abundance of roster balancing quandaries. Collins, 35, steadily earned a reputation for his ability to offer toughness, defensive post presence, rebounding in limited minutes, and developed a (somewhat exaggerated) folklore identity as one player capable of shutting down Dwight Howard. As Araton hints at, however, there are hovering concerns that New York would not neglect the chance to sign Jason Collins for his on-court prowess (or lack thereof), but rather due to the attention expected to be received for inking the NBA's first openly-gay, active player. In 38 appearances last season for the Boston Celtics and the Washington Wizards, Collins managed roughly 10 minutes per game and continued to consolidate his status as an unflashy, workman-like player. The Knicks' official position on the unsigned big man remains to be seen, and though it appears an unlikely scenario, it does not change their foreboding frontline reality.

Given the likelihood of increased minutes for the Anthony-Bargnani combination, it is worth considering the on-court products of the pairing in the limited outings to date. Neither player is known for his defensive capability, and this is explicitly evident in the details (assessed on a per 100 possessions basis) of their floor-sharing, with a -24.5 differential across the first four games. The ghastly defensive numbers could be somewhat ignored or covered up to an extent if the offensively-oriented combo were able to outgun opponents at the opposite end, only that they are shooting an unsustainable 43.0% from the field when playing alongside one another, also per NBA.com stats. Factoring in the inflexibility of the roster and the nature of the team in flux/panic mode, we can expect Anthony and Bargnani to feature in lineups with guard trios, and adjacent to fellow gunslinging forward, Metta World Peace. Assuredly, the Knicks' brass will anticipate a sizeable uptick in Carmelo Anthony's offensive efficiency and scoring volume, and hold out hope that a renewed role will allow the rangy Italian to cushion himself into a comfortable routine both offensively, and in the context of his place on the roster. Bargnani, officially listed at 7"0, has accumulated a mere eight total rebounds on the season, and found himself with an average of only 3 rebound opportunities (deemed to be within 3.5ft of the ball), according to publicly available SportsVU tracking data. Furthermore, he has found himself in a position to defend at the rim on 6 total occasions over four games, highlighting his penchant for floating aimlessly on the perimeter on both ends of the floor.

Of course, some of the unwanted trends through the Knicks' first handful of games will be addressed, and the team will look to iron out a lot of the kinks of their faulting offense, nonetheless, the long-term outlook is not especially flattering for the franchise. Burdened by injury, weighty salaries, and a dearth of true future assets and draft picks, New York - unless miraculously freed from the shackles of its own roster - seems destined to be lodged in the quagmire of the lower Eastern Conference playoff seeds. As Grantland's Zach Lowe reinforces, the Knicks have emphatically hitched their future and their basketball identity solely to the production of Anthony, a strategy that could well leave them in search of a restart button in seasons to come. There is still hope for the team to reach the postseason in 2013-14, notwithstanding Chandler's likely non-participation in 20 to 25 games, but just how far the face of the franchise can drag them is not yet certain.

In the immediate setting, however, Mike Woodson (with a warming seat of his own) will reshuffle the deck, experiment, and look to fill the chasmal void left behind by Tyson Chandler with bit-part contributions by role players and undersized, stretch four-men. Next on the schedule is a road game in Charlotte, and Woodson will have to comprise a working defensive strategy swiftly and with conviction, as the Knicks will host Tim Duncan's Spurs and Dwight Howard's Rockets in the next seven days.

If nothing else, the course and development of the remainder of New York's season is certain to provide an array of endless intrigue, and melodrama.

Knicks Night #3: Defensive Stability a Tall Order for New York

Mike Woodson not impressed by the play of his Knicks.

After a miserable display at home to Minnesota on Sunday, Mike Woodson and the Knicks looked to steady the ship with a victory over the lowly Bobcats at MSG on Tuesday night. Charlotte arrived in Manhattan with a 1-2 record, exerting a refined, stingy defense, yet being placed 30th in the free throw department (55-90 over the first three games, 61%). With Al Jefferson remaining on the sidelines as day-to-day with an ankle concern, new head coach and former Knicks assistant Steve Clifford stuck with a traditional lineup of Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Josh McRoberts, and Bismack Biyombo. Despite undesirable results on Sunday, New York endured with their 'big' lineup, keeping Andrea Bargnani at the four spot to start the evening.

Wary of his late-game play and fleeting offensive successes, Carmelo Anthony attacked early in the first period, searching for some consistency in his trademark midrange jumper. Anthony's efforts aside (he begun with 1-6 shooting), though, the first quarter of play almost served as a mirror image of Sunday, with the Knicks' primary struggles emerging from their anaemic, sieve-like defense. New York's guards were constantly burned on pick-and-roll opportunities (particularly the point guards), as Kemba Walker shook and spun his way to a 4 of 5 start from the field. Much like the opening three contests, the Knicks were excessively reliant on the robust defence and leadership of Tyson Chandler, whose omnipresent alertness and weak-side help got the team out of jail on countless occasions. Chandler's presence was not limited to the defensive side of the ball, either, as his taps, tip-backs and offensive rebounding hustle masked the fact that New York could not splash outside shots. Tellingly, Chandler and Iman Shumpert (who is seemingly yet to earn the full trust and confidence of Woodson) were rocks of reliability in an otherwise shaky situation. Shumpert netted 9 points in the game's early going, though the apathy of the Knicks nonetheless resulted in the bleeding of 31 first-quarter points. Furthermore, alarm bells were sounded with 5mins remaining when Walker drove hard down the middle of the lane and jarred knees with Chandler, who could not bear weight on his right leg and failed to return after being forced to the bench.

With guard Raymond Felton also being attended to on the sidelines (following a shot to the face), Mike Woodson implemented an unconventional unit consisting of two point guards - having Pablo Prigioni play alongside the sparingly utilised Beno Udrih in the backcourt. Ball movement was an emphasis with this setup, and Metta World Peace (7-13 for 18pts in 33 minutes), who has been shooting well of late, reaped the immediate rewards by sinking a line drive three ball to reduce the deficit. Knowing that Anthony and Bargnani had battled to establish offensive consistency and with already-thin front court depth, Woodson inserted Amar'e Stoudemire for his first game action since Thursday of last week. Even with all that has been said on the subject of Stoudemire, and his unambiguous decline, this showing was particularly difficult to absorb. Stoudemire, remaining on strict minute limits, exhibited waning elevation, having a pair of his shots dismissed by Bobcats journeyman Jeff Adrien on back to back possessions. His first stint on the floor resulted in zero of two field goal shooting with one turnover, earning him a hasty hook from the unimpressed Woodson.

Concerning trends came out of the first half of play - the Knicks continued to peddle a porous defense, being torched in transition, and appearing to have no scheme or communication. The "slicing and dicing" (TM Clyde Frazier) of Charlotte's undersized backcourt, Kemba Walker and Ramon Sessions, frazzled New York's defense, operating the pick-and-roll at will and throwing the home team's backcourt into utter disarray. Thankfully, for the sake of the Knickerbockers, World Peace provided much-needed stability and shot-making off the pine, connecting on 4 of his 5 launches in the first half, including two from downtown. Walker, meanwhile, with a melange of crossovers and pull-up jumpers, headed into the halftime break with 17pts on 7-9 shooting from the floor.

The Bobcats pushed the lead to as many as 13 points in the third stanza, punishing the scattered shooting and ball control of their opponents. Amar'e Stoudemire's (2pts, 3 rebounds, 5 turnovers) night to forget did not improve, being heavily limited by his diminishing athleticism and wild turnovers, whilst exacerbating New York's problems with a technical foul. Cody Zeller got his paws on a put-back after Anthony Tolliver's couldn't connect on a buzzer-beating long range fling, but the officials deemed that time had expired prior to the rookie removing his hand from the basketball.

It was clear in the fourth that if the Knicks were to assemble any form of a comeback effort, it would be on the shoulders of Anthony, for whom offensive rhythm and post-up polish had been a problem. Limiting the chances of this, though, was the pestering and suffocating defense of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, which was an invaluable commodity for Charlotte in the closing stages of the game. An inadvertent tip by Anthony late in the fourth quarter stretched Charlotte's buffer to 6 points, forcing Mike Woodson to consider set play options to dial in from 23 feet and slice the difference in half. New York came out of a timeout with Kenyon Martin setting a hard pick at the top and freeing Carmelo for a straight-on treble, and the feint, flickering hopes of the Knicks' caught a hint of luck when Shumpert's liveliness earned the team a steal and transition opportunity. Shumpert, who finished with 14 points and was previously 4-4 at the line, missed the first and made the second, however, comfortably allowing the Bobcats to conservatively play the free-throw game and nestle into a two-possession advantage with time shrinking.

The loss leaves the Knicks clamouring for a seemingly elusive solution to their worrying trends, while Charlotte depart town sitting nicely at .500. Carmelo Anthony gathered five rebounds and scored 32 points, although it took him 28 field goal attempts to do so.

FINAL - New York 97-102 Charlotte

New York 1-3, Charlotte 2-2

Primo Pasta? Andrea Bargnani Will Not Start on Opening Night for the Knicks

Changing roles: Bargnani started in the preseason, but could come off the bench for New York on Opening Night.

Look away, Knicks fans, Andrea Bargnani appears to be entering the season in a haze of uncertainty. Having started all seven of New York's exhibition games (in which the Knicks managed a 2-5 record), reports have emerged that the floor-spacing big man may open the season as a bench contributor. The 7"0 Italian battled recurring shooting woes through the course of the preseason, including a final outing against Charlotte that saw him finish 2-10 from the field with 7pts, in 27 minutes of playing time. Bargnani arrived at Madison Square Garden in July as part of a trade with Toronto that sent Marcus Camby, Quentin Richardson (both since waived), Steve Novak, and a slew of future draft picks to the Raptors. The executed trade, it is worth noting, was engineered by the then-leading man of the Knicks' front office - Glen Grunwald - who has since been fired. Regardless of reasoning, the fact that the organisation dismissed its President and General Manager (Grunwald held both positions) only 10 weeks after the roster shakeup does not serve as a glowing reflection upon the departing executive. Grunwald exits having assembled a Knicks cast that gathered the team's highest win total (54) since the '96-97 season, and achieved its first playoff series victory in 13 years.

Trialling training camp invitees and experimenting with rookie Tim Hardaway Jr. and recent acquisitions Beno Udrih and Metta World Peace, the Knicks wielded a number of different, eclectic lineups in the foggy irrelevance of October basketball. Unsurprisingly, this produced varying, sometimes eyebrow-raising results, including a 30pt rout at the hands of Boston in Manchester, New Hampshire. Frequently, Bargnani was slotted alongside Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler, asked to provide added scoring punch, stretch the opposition defense, and remain a 3rd or 4th option on offense. The former #1 overall pick holds a reputation of a sharpshooting seven-footer, despite failing the reach the 37% mark on 3pt field goal attempts since 2009. He appeared in only 35 games for Toronto last season, constantly fighting injury and struggling to stay on the floor. This offseason, the Italian missed five weeks with a bout of pneumonia, and managed nagging back complaints in training camp. Meanwhile, Bargnani lofted an unhealthy average of 3.5 treys per contest last year, now joining a team that set the NBA record for the number of long-range attempts (2,371) throughout a regular season. 

He is a player whom intense scrutiny seems to inevitably follow, if for nothing else but his high-draft expectation and annual $11M salary. Bargnani wrapped up his preseason with numbers of 24 of 63 from the field (38%), and having misfired on 12 of his 15 three-point launches. The Knicks headed toward 2013-14 knowing that three players were assured of starting roles - Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler, and Raymond Felton. In the preseason, Bargnani started in lineups with this trio, occasionally with Pablo Prigioni, and at times with the defensive-minded Iman Shumpert. The team's most successful stretch in 2012-13 occurred when Pablo Prigioni was inserted as a starting staple, assisting the Knicks on an historic 12 game win streak in March-April. A confidence player, and one not shy about expressing his opinion on team situations, New York's newfound #77 looks set to have the comfort of his starting role usurped. New York will open their season tonight by hosting Milwaukee, and it appears head coach Mike Woodson will roll out a lineup substituting the Italian for the active hands of either Prigioni, or Metta World Peace. 

With fellow pricy big man Amar'e Stoudemire suffering persistent knee issues, veteran Kenyon Martin unlikely to feature in back-to-back games, and guard J.R. Smith sidelined for the first five games due to a violation of the league's drugs policy, much of the Knicks' early season success will be dependent on the productivity and contributions of Bargnani. New York will hope (pray?) that the somewhat sudden reshuffle does not throw the foreign product further off course, as the franchise looks to build upon its Atlantic Division crown from a season ago.